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About SJPONeill

Retired(ish) and living on the side of a mountain. I love reading and writing, pottering around with DIY in the garden and the kitchen, watching movies and building models from plastic and paper...I have two awesome daughters, two awesome grand-daughters and two awesome big dogs...lots of awesomeness around me...

Definitions in COIN

Randomly-selected COIN-themed header pic

In December 2006, the US Army and USMC co-published FM 3-24 Counterinsurgency, a publication specifically intended to align US forces with the needs of operations amongst ‘the people’ in Iraq. Some of the ideas were new, others harked back to well-established truisms from the eras of Vietnam and Malaya – the aim was a decisive shift in how US forces conducted themselves in the new operating environment where force and ‘the big stick’ weren’t the ultimate arguments.

The COIN Center at Fort Leavenworth is now taking the lead in a two year project to review the content of the original FM 3-24 and update it as a tool for less-specific i.e. not Iraq, operating environments. As part of the project, the Center is seeking comment from a broad spectrum of stakeholders and interested parties and thus is conducting a large portion of its work in the public forum. From this part of the world, that means some odd hours to participate in the regular webcasts that discuss aspects of the project but it is well worth the lost sleep.

The Center has produced three Issue Papers on key aspects of the publication – these are available on its public website – and over the next while, I’ll share my thoughts on those issues…IP1 is Definitions

Accepting that irregular warfare is sufficiently different from conventional conflict to warrant specific definitions and doctrine, possibly the first question to be considered is whether insurgency is sufficiently different from other subsets of irregular warfare to require specific doctrine and definitions i.e. would targeting irregular warfare as the primary subject also satisfactorily cover insurgency as a subset of IW?

In examining the definitions under paragraph 3 of IP1, the answer is probably ‘yes’ and of all the definitions, the French one is probably the most accurate, closely followed by the Spanish and USG definitions if they dropped the word ‘political’. The key elements of the environment that FM 3-24 seeks to describe are the use of armed conflict/guerrilla warfare/terrorism and the objective of control. Whether that control is political or other is largely moot as the net result is control over a geographic area and/or a group of people.

Recommendation 1 could read “That the US Government should adopt a single definition of Irregular Warfare, of which insurgency is a subset”; this renders a specific definition of counterinsurgency moot. Considering that the ultimate objective of a campaign to counter irregular warfare is stability, it may be that the countering definition comes closer to stability operations that it does any other type of operation. This, of course, would lead to a review of more fundamental doctrinal principles, in particular whether stability operations are actually distinct from offensive and defensive operations per se, or whether that distinction is more from major combat operations or conventional operations e.g. the Fulda Gap.

With reference to paragraph 4, this argument is moot and largely doctrinal semantic hair-splitting unless there is some previously unrecognised body of knowledge proving that all the types of IW conflict listed under that paragraph are uniquely and distinctly different from insurgency and that the responses to those forms of conflict are equally uniquely and distinctly different from those employed to counter insurgency. I would offer that they are probably not and even postulate that it would not be uncommon for two or more of the forms of IW to exist in the same theatre. The finding that “…the approved definition should distinguish  insurgency from the types of conflict listed [below paragraph 4]…” i.e. recommendation 2 is incorrect.

Recommendation 4 is correct in not recognising the use of the term ‘grievances’ which immediately leads to a ‘righting wrong’ mindset. While the definition of counterinsurgency gains little from incorporation of ‘root causes’ into the actual definition, it is rather dismissive of ‘root causes‘, as an element of any campaign countering insurgency. The simple definition of counterinsurgency is “those steps and measures employed to counter insurgency” and care must be applied to ensure that the definition does not prescribe or imply the specific steps and means of countering insurgency – these should be defined and refined in the substance of the publication itself.  Thus the definition of counterinsurgency is less important than the definition of insurgency i.e. there is a whole publication in which counterinsurgency will be defined, but this will only add value if the core definition of insurgency is ‘got right’. Our broader concern is that such sentiment will shape the content of the publication itself.

Caution should be applied, however, in dismissing ‘root causes’ from any approach to counterinsurgency. Cause should be considered in its classic causal sense and not in the narrower context of a political or other cause. To not consider root or underlying causes in an insurgency environment promotes the apparently practical and reasonable mindset that there is such thing as a successful military approach to countering an insurgency i.e. good versus bad, us versus them, friendly versus enemy, defeat the enemy. Even if the action arm (translating Clausewitz’s three elements of a problem into an IW environment where the government, the armed forces and the people become the leadership, the action arm and the people) of the insurgent elements is defeated, it is almost bound to rise again if the underlying causes, be they political, criminal, economic, egotistical, etc are not addressed. An underlying issue is clear in the five examples of ‘non-compliant’ insurgencies listed under recommendation 4.

A cynical exception to this would be where it is necessary to temporarily defeat or suppress an insurgency as an enabling action for a higher objective i.e. national objectives, and where upon attainment of that objective the course of the insurgency is no longer a national concern.

Recommendation 5 is a little misleading. I agree that the term does not need to be included in the definition of counterinsurgency but for the reasons stated above in regard to not including ‘root causes’ in the definition i.e. that this specificity is not necessary in the definition where considerations for and approaches to counterinsurgency can be discussed at length within the text of the publication – assuming that the actual definition of insurgency is ‘got right’. The broader concern is that such sentiment will shape the content of the publication itself.

However, recommendation 5 as a whole implies that it is possible to successfully prosecute a counterinsurgency campaign without employing a comprehensive/JIM (joint, inter-agency, multi-national) approach. Unless the objective of the campaign is short-term suppression or stability to enable a higher objective, one would be hard-pressed to find too many examples from history of successful counter-insurgency or broader irregular warfare campaigns that have relied on a solely military approach; in fact, it is likely that historical review would find that most conflicts of any nature or scale have required a broader engagement for ultimate success. Identifying a comprehensive or JIM approach as the optimum method to a counterinsurgency campaign does not commit one to automatically have to seek or comply with the full scope of the JIM model; it definitely would not “…result in the US not being able to declare that it is countering an insurgency unless all organization types are involved…” This is the checklist/template approach to counterinsurgency and irregular warfare, in fact to all forms of warfare, that is an inadequate substitute for critical thinking and consideration of each conflict challenge in its own right.

I only have two comments on the actual proposed definition of insurgency. The first is that the word ‘minority’ should be removed as its use implies that only minority groups can conduct insurgencies. The insurgencies in South Africa and Rhodesia, and the current situation in Fiji (although only instability, not insurgency) are examples of majority groups that have initiated insurgencies or that have the potential to do so. The second is that ‘de facto’ should be removed as a descriptor for the at risk system of government due to its ambiguous meaning as either ‘genuine’ i.e. legitimate or ‘actual’ which could possibly be taken to refer to an effective shadow system of government competing with the actual system of government. Consideration could be given to replacing ‘de facto’ with ‘legitimate’ to recognise that the initial point for any campaign of this nature is probably in support of the existing government (where such exists) however this brings with it other issues. It is not considered that, for the definition, system of government requires any qualifier and that any issues of governing relating to a specific operating environment should be identified and considered in the early stages of campaign planning.

I have no major issues with the definition of counterinsurgency however it is rather wordy and the list of adjectives preceding ‘actions’ appears contrary to the concerns expressed in recommendation 5 regarding the perceived risks of prescribing solutions if the word ‘comprehensive’ was to be employed. It could more simply expressed as ‘Those actions taken by military and government agencies to defeat insurgencies’. The qualifier of ‘civilian’ for government agencies is a given with the existing qualification of ‘military and’, and, in any case, it creates a grey area for the employment of paramilitary forces which might be considered neither truly military nor truly civilian. The rationale behind including ‘over a protracted period of time’ is understood however it creates at the highest level of doctrine a perception that all campaigns will occur over a protracted period which while the most common occurrence, may not always be the case, especially if as above, the campaign seeks short-term suppression of an insurgency to enable a higher objective to be achieved. The use of ‘of time’ after period is also redundant: period by definition is ‘of time’.

I think that it is vital that we get the doctrinal and semantic foundations of this publication right – to not do so leaves layers of potential ‘get out of jail free cards‘ where a situation may not meet the specific nature of ‘insurgency‘ as defined in this publication and those that refer to it. Inherent in this is to break COIN away from the self-licking ice cream and commercial cash cows that it has become over the last decade and to set it in its right place under the general mantle of irregular warfare….

Next time…IP2 Force Ratios

There is no truth

…in the rumour that a crazed digger driver attacked the Lodge while I was away last week…the results look pretty damn fine…unfortunately we don’t have much in the way of a logical before/after sequence (will we ever learn?) but what looked like this…

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Looking off the front deck…all smoothed out now – might be able to add a hairpin to the twins racing track…

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The water tanks all better now – a Boxing Day team effort….

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Nasty tight damp back path and the BBQ on the edge of the wilderness….

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…It’s now looking rather different with clear access all a round the back of the house now and with the lawn extended past the punga grove….first rain should let us know if the ‘fall’ towards the pond and the stream is set up right…it probably makes more sense if you’ve been here and know how it all goes together….

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Above: what WAS a narrow path you you barely get through with an armload of washing….

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Above: A shot of the redeveloped (after Treescape and The Lines Company butchered it in 2005) punga grove – two weeks ago that was just a ditch with pungas overgrown with bracken and blackberry…

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Lulu looks a bit unsure about it all – there’s probably a good bone or two buried way deeper now than they were a few days back…

It will look better once it’s all green again…hopefully in time for Terri’s next visit….

Bullets and bouquets

When I’m on the road, there are usually some organisations that impress and some that don’t…my Qantas flight here last weekend was absolutely chocka – a sign perhaps that things are picking up economically, or just that more flights have been cut? – and I had the only video terminal on the whole plane that was dead as the proverbial doornail. A bit of a bummer really as long haul international flights are normally my opportunity to catch up on fairly new release movies that haven’t gotten to the Raurimu Multiplex yet…

The cabin crew did what they could and after rebooting the system a number of times came to the conclusion that it was no longer a going concern – I think I have have mentioned previously my concern that if the video system was done by Rockwell-Collins then hopefully the flight control system wasn’t by Sony – and apologised profuselyfor the total inconvenience to my enjoyment of the flight. They then offered me a bottle of champagne as a compensatory gesture and it would have been rude not to accept it. So far it has survived the trip and hopefully won’t have to be dumped tomorrow night if I am overweight…

Anyways, the dud video system gave me an opportunity to do some recreational reading on the B&N Nook that I picked up this time last year. I managed to chew through Bob Mayer’s Area 51 – a rollicking good yarn – before we landed in LA and had started on Rick Castle’s Heat Wave – as entertained as the series but way raunchier…

So that’s the bouquet…well done, Qantas…!!

And mention of the Nook brings me to a ginormous brickbat to Barnes and Noble…having researched my Nook purchase in some detail before purchasing it, I got it home only to find that I could only download Nookbooks while geographically located in the US. OK, I loaded it up on my next visit and intended doing the same this time…but…Barnes & Noble in its infinite wisdom, has decided to now restrict Nookbook purchases to only US-billed credit cards – not exactly something one can pick up on the street…gift cards also fail unless the giftee’s account is linked to a US-billed credit card…

To add insult to injury, in all the marketing spam that B&N send out, not once have I seen any mention of this change before or after the act. So now essentially I have a Nook that won’t be good for much once I finish my current load of books…watch this space for an account of my adventures softrooting the Nook so it’ll read anyone’s e-books – whatever I end up doing, it’ll be a high calibre solution. In the meantime, boo hiss to B&N!!!

And now, to the good people of America, here’s your big chance to get into the bouquet queue…I ma becoming very concerned at the manner in which retail supplies of root beer are slowly disappearing from the market…the 711 that was my life support in Crystal City only had baby-sized 20 oz bootles, and Burger King, McDs, Popeyes etc seem to have abandoned the cause altogether. This is not good enough!! It is bad enough not being able to get a good supply down under (overpriced four-packs of sarsaparilla do not count!) but it is simply not acceptable to land here and have to hunt for a simple root beer! I will of course be exporting some more root beer Sodastream syrup when I leave and a bottle is normally good for 3-6 months if I ration it carefully but it would be much appreciated if you could get this sorted before I come back….it’s not like I want F-35 to fly or anything silly or impractical…

Thanks…

Weekly Photo Challenge: Arranged

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I was fortunate yesterday to be invited on a pre-opening guided tour of the Smithsonian Air and Space Museum. I visited the museum last year during normal hours when it is packed (8 million visitors a year!!) and found it difficult to get to all the exhibits, let alone see them or get a decent camera angle. We had just over an hour before the doors opened and the experience was unbelievable – also unbelievable was the massive leap in noise levels as soon as the doors opened…

While I’m on the road, I have to work a bit harder for photos to meet each week’s challenge and I was hoping that this tour might provide something for today’s challenge. I got lucky with not one but two (probably would have had more as all the aircraft displays are very well arranged but even without the place to ourselves, my little camera just doesn’t have the field of view to capture the true effect of the arranged displays…

The header image is from the naval aviation hall and shows three aircraft that I’ve always thought significant: the Dauntless that changed history at Midway (even though this one is a late model SBD-6); the Wildcat that fended off early Japanese attacks at places like Wake Island, Coral Sea and Midway; and the A-4 Skyhawk that is very precious to us Kiwis…

Below is the other arrangement that appealed to me…our guide explained that the entrance to the WW1 hall is based upon the legends of the WW1 ‘Knights of the Sky’ and includes a lot of memorabilia that fosters those legends from immediately after the war through to the Aurora models of the 60s. Interestingly, the Fokker suspended over this part of the display is actually not only a WW1 combat veteran but also one of the aircraft that actually flew in movies like Knights of the Sky’…from this light opening, the display then exposes visitors to the darker realities of the first air war…

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PS, WordPress, I’m not a ‘change is bad’ kinda guy but I really hate the new button for new posts…too damn hard to find and select categories and tags, no option to save while drafting…if it ain’t broke…

PPS…links to Smithsonian visit slideshow

Weekly Photo Challenge: Through

I have a couple of quite cool ‘through‘ (yes, I know this is last week’s challenge but this has been the first opportunity I’ve had to sit down and do some writing) pictures at home but they are not much good to me half a world away…my work schedule in DC was quite intense with most days being twelve hours or longer so I was starting to worry that I might not be able to meet the challenge while on the road…on a break though, I was strolling down Prince Street in Alexandria and noticed the very narrow alleys between blocks of houses. You can just see some hint as to what lies beyond as you glance through each gap….

I always enjoy being around old quarters such as this, wondering what tales that each might tell…

Titbits

Pears in Red Wine

Tried this last night – it’s my fourth or fifth crack at it. Previous attempts have always resulted in cooked pears that don’t really absorb the flavour of the juice and yummy juice that goes down uber-well in a wine glass.

This time I skipped the raw pears and took the lazy option of just using a can of pear halves with all the syrup. Tossed this is a pot with a whole bottle of cheap red wine, 2/3 of a cup of sugar, 6 whole cloves and a two inch cinnamon stick. Took it to the boil and then simmered for 20-25 minutes before serving the fruit over ice cream. Yummy! The remaining juice was strained through a sieve and served up warm in wine glasses. Lights out!

It’s that simple

Yep…it’s called OPSEC in the modern world…and no, you kids DON’T have a right to use these toys at work…Michael is quite useful at times although he has once again poisoned his own well by grandstanding off the Panjwai shootings this week to promote his own campaign against US servicemen who may have threatened his life (no doubt with provocation, Mikey)…

Thoughts on Lex

If there is one lesson that can be learned from Lex’s accident, it surely must be ‘don’t leave til tomorrow what you should do today’…I used to read his blog daily but as I returned to work and the tempo ramped up again my visits became less and less frequent. I’ve been back a lot since the accident and read much of what I missed but it’s not the same…

On the accident itself, there is comment on the preliminary NTSB report at Instapinch

And finally some trivia…

Pretty self-explanatory, I guess, drafted an email with this words in it and it was smart enough to check that I knew what i was doing.

I do…most days…

Weekly Photo Challenge: Contrast

Got a bit idle and almost missed last week’s photo challenge…please not the contrast between the old chicken coop, designed for 10 chickens who are all pretty friendly, and the new version, almost designed for 10 chickens but with enough room that they can all have their own space and don’t have to even like each other…chickens last seen heading off for Danske Mobler to order in lounge suites and a big plasma TV…

Weekly Photo Challenge: Unusual

What’s so unusual about this? Both daughters were home and a pavlova and a lemon meringue pie survived untouched on the bench for over five minutes…

fly further on to the stars, friend

I got a call from Rowland Harrison at Hawkeye UAV yesterday to tell me that retired naval aviator, Carroll LeFon, aka Neptunus Lex, had been killed flying a F-21 at NAS Fallon.

I never met Lex but corresponded with him a  couple of times after Rowland introduced me to his blog in 2009 and always found his blog an insightful perspective into the world of military and general aviation, also also into his ‘take’ on world events. In my ever so humble opinion, one of the better blogs around and certainly an inspiration for the rest of the military blog community.

A Personal Note from Secretary Ray Mabus

By Whisper, on March 8th, 2012

I mourn the passing of a great naval aviator, a professional analyst of all things naval, and a soulful and compelling writer of poetry and prose – Ray Mabus, SecNav.

cross-posted at Naval Institute blog

The Navy Times story that broke the news:

Crash kills pilot who blogged as Neptunus Lex

By Joshua Stewart – Staff writer

Posted : Wednesday Mar 7, 2012 13:13:46 EST

Retired naval aviator Carroll LeFon, perhaps better known by the nom de plume Neptunus Lex, was killed in a plane crash Tuesday morning when his F-21 Kfir crashed at Naval Air Station Fallon, Nev., his blog confirmed.

LeFon, 51, retired as a captain in June 2008 after serving as an instructor at Top Gun and in various positions at several strike fighter squadrons.

In his civilian life, LeFon worked for Airborne Tactical Advantage Co., a contractor that operates simulated enemy aircraft with which student aviators train. But as a prominent military blogger, he was part analyst, part cheerleader, part critic and part poet who wrote about the Navy, his family, the military and global affairs with the casual tone, frankness and familiarity that flows through ready rooms. His sea stories were personal memoirs as well as parables.

ATAC and Fallon did not return calls for comment. The cause of thecrash is under investigation.

LeFon began blogging in 2003 during the early months of the invasion of Iraq. Like many other military bloggers, he initially wrote anonymously — it was and still can be problematic for service members to openly publish opinions.

Besides writing for his personal fulfillment, he tried to counter media reports that would tax the military’s will to fight, said Cmdr. Chap Godbey, a blogger, foreign area officer and the author of one of the dozens of tributes to LeFon to hit the web as news of his death spread.

“He was a guy who was able to put out the truth, put out first-hand reporting from folks and put out things that would not have gotten out any other way,” Godbey said.

LeFon’s blog chronicled his own experiences in the Navy, his transition into retirement and his second career in the civilian workforce.

He was thrilled to fly Kfirs as opposition forces because it meant that he would continue to operate one of the world’s most advanced jets, Godbey said.

The joy of having a second chance, not being over, that’s a big thing for fighter pilots, because once you’re done, you’re done. And that change hits people pretty hard,” he said.

Originally from Alexandria, Va., LeFon earned his commission through the Naval Academy in 1982.

“To this day, I cannot see the academy’s chapel dome in the distance without checking my watch to see if I am late, and wondering whether I am going to be in trouble,” he wrote in one of his posts.

He reported to his first squadron in the fleet, Strike Fighter Squadron 25, in July 1987. “Here is where I discovered that despite being the only male child in my family, I had twelve brothers,” he wrote.

Several other billets involved training, including a tour as an instructor at Navy Fighter Weapons School, better known as Top Gun. He was the executive officer and later commanding officer of Strike Fighter Squadron 94. He was with that squadron from June 2001 to July 2003.

Along the way he deployed seven times, serving on the carriers Constellation, Independence and Carl Vinson. He earned two Legions of Merit, two Meritorious Service Medals, the Air Medal (Strike/Flight Award), two Navy/ Marine Corps Commendation Medals and the Navy/Marine Corps Achievement Medal.

He leaves behind his wife and three children, including a son who flies MH-60S Seahawks.

Married to the best girl I ever met, who also delivered up three wonderful children. Don’t really know how I could be happier, or more blessed,” he wrote.

Weekly Photo Challenge: Distorted

This week’s challenge is ‘distorted’ – I’ve never really been into taking photographs of images distorted by the lens or some other direct medium so I struggled to find an approach to this theme. Then I remembered the online discussion at the Unofficial Airfix Modellers’ Forum in the lead up to the Classic Box Art display for ScaleModelWorld at Telford last year – all the build discussions are here for those who might be interested – on the difficulties being experience (and overcome) converying a 2D image into a 3D representation of that image without wildly distorting the theme and flavour of the original art work. So this won’t be for everyone’s taste’s but it’s something that rocks my boat so I’ve included rather more images than I would normally for the Weekly Challenge. Each set comprise the 3D interpretation with an image of the orginal artwork.

My favourite at Telford – yes, I was lucky enough to be in the UK over the Telford weekend and go to spend a whole day there so all the images of the displays are mine taken on the day – was JRatz’s version of the Matchbox M16 half-track – a personal favourite since I was about 10 – which offered a mjor challenge in capturing the essence of speed and urgency in the original…I think this is pretty damn good…

The trick, of course, would be to be able to photograph each display from the same perspective as the original image but the layout of the display and the sheer size of the crowd at Telford made this impossible. I think that the plan for this year’s Classic British Kit (CBK) display at ScaleModelWord in Telford is for a Part Deux of this theme as many have been inspired from he seeing how well the first attempts at this idea have turned out. Certainly, I am somewhat inspired to have a crack although it is a long way from here to Telford with what might be delicate cargo…thought this is what I might recreate:

Three or four Airfix Bloodhounds and a base board and away we go...