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Images of Owhango

Posted on 3 November 2009 by SJPONeill
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This is Owhango, a small town near the Central Plateau of New Zealand’s North Island. This is the main road, State Highway 4.

Owhango Market Day 006

Owhango has been a bit sad in the last month since the pub closed. A typical story these days: out of town owner, purchased it with a mega-mortgage and charged mega-rent to cover the mega-mortgage; the business couldn’t sustain the mega-rent and so now there’s half a dozen or so less jobs in Owhango, no pub and no fish’n’chips…the next closest pub is National Park one way or Taumarunui the other but there’s no taxis or Dial-a-driver…welcome to the country…

Owhango Market Day 008

This is State Highway 4, looking the other way towards Taumarunui. It’s a busy day – market day…

Owhango Market Day 007

We popped down for a look, even though we aren’t really locals yet: we’ve only been here for five years. I thought I might get some ‘what’s around the area’ pics for the Chalet website I’m building as my experiment in marketing this summer to supplement its  site on Bookabach…and you never know what might turn up at the market…

Owhango Market Day 005

Normally you can drive through Owhango and see no one but on the first Sunday of each month, it’s market day…

Owhango Market Day 003

…and the population explodes…

Owhango Market Day 002

…I can never resist a sausage sizzle but managed to stay away from the fresh cheese and wild venison salami tasting…I really liked the slat hammock in the background and think I will invest in one next month (the same stall also had children’s rope ladders but Carmen wouldn’t let me get a couple for the twins – I guess they’ll have to stick with ripping up their sheets to getaway for now)

Owhango Market Day 001

…it could be typical small town anywhere…

Owhango Market Day 004

After a good hour or so browsing, we had a coffee in the sun at Out of the Fog – it is a damn shame that it is only open on weekends now – again, welcome to life in the country…

It struck me as we sat in the sun and chattered with the locals how much small towns are alike anywhere and how intrusive WE would consider an occupying force that did not speak our language, did not understand our culture and thundered through town at speed in its armoured vehicles…even if the local police officer had stopped for a sausage, some conversations would have slowed, some people might have slipped back into the shadows…how incongruous and invasive we would consider it to have soldiers in their reflective shades, bulky body armour and guns at OUR market…would we talk with them or look away til they left. Would WE be more receptive to someone who lived amongst us, understood who WE are and how WE think, who know what WE value and hold dear…? You’re a smart guy, MAJ Jim Gant…

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Posted in Masterchef Raurimu, The Thursday/Friday War | Tagged Chalet, COIN, Jim Gant, Tribal Engagement Teams | 2 Replies

Microcosms

Posted on 1 November 2009 by SJPONeill
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Chalet in Springtime 002

This was the Chalet on Thursday morning, not much short of idyllic, blue skies, birds singing…what more could you want. On Friday morning, the Chalet was much the same, albeit slightly overcast. Meanwhile, on the other side of the Mountain, it was:

Waiouru in Springtime

This got me thinking about micros…cosms, ecosystems, stuff…it’s about 70km from home to Waiouru. In that distance it’s not unusual to experience three, maybe even four, distinct microclimates ranging from blue skies through rain and sleet to a foot of snow on the ground – I almost drove Little Red on Friday, without the hard top – which, as it turned out, would have been interesting with the broken zip on the back window of the soft top…

Once upon a time, we knew when it was Winter, Spring, Summer and Autumn – it was all quite logical and simple – you couldn’t set your watch by the seasons but not far off it – nowadays…who knows? How many of us had to repopulate our vege gardens these year after a false spring disappeared in a flurry of hail and snow not so long ago? What sort of mitigating mechanisms do we develop to get around this growing uncertainty?

My point in this is that we should be getting used to complexity and uncertainty whether it’s the weather, ACC levies, mortgage rates, etc, etc; if we go back far enough (and it probably won’t be that long a trip) in talking with our parents and grandparents, we’ll probably find that this is nothing new – complexity and uncertainty are more likely constants than new phenomena. Could it be that until we got back into actual warfighting (“You’re not in peace support anymore, Dr Ropata!!”again on a large scale, the decades of the Cold War since Vietnam had lulled us all into a nice safe Fulda Gap sense of complacency?

If that is the case, surely the draft Capstone Concept for the US Army needs to be leading far further forward than where we are today? I’m still so disappointed in the draft – if I had the time, I would give it a crack myself – if 20-25 pages is the aim, if 2016-2028 is the game, and Interbella is the tool, then where might we be in 2028? What then will be causing us to lose sleep

The Small Wars Council is linked into my Facebook page and this article from the New York Times this morning’s post really got me going – this opinion and the subsequent comment are setting the scene for a withdrawal from Afghanistan. While I have my own concerns regarding the benefits of any troop surge (the  situation is totally different from that addressed by the surge into Iraq) and the lack of detailed campaign strategy, I don’t believe that apathy is a good enough reason to just bail.

Ultimately, if ‘the people’ of Afghanistan are not interested in buying into this war and/or democracy – and there’s not much to suggest that they are – then we are not going to achieve much in tactical-level combat with the Taliban. Maybe we would be better off leaving the ‘government’ of Afghanistan to muddle through on its own and to direct our support to anti-Taliban (or should our focus really be on anti-AQ) elements in Afghanistan, probably at the tribal level…?

Subscribers will have noticed the lack over updates over the past two days. Partly this is due to actually having to do some work but also because I got handed a review copy of the UK’s new Joint Combat Operations Virtual Environment (JCOVE – a bit of an odd name although I have known some Joint coves in my time!)
JCOVE Lynx HMA

I’ve still only scratched the surface of it but was impressed right from the outset at the standard of presentation and development of the package, especially in comparison with the ADF version I got to review a few months ago (which lost me in the first ten minutes with a clumsy interface and lack of situational awareness. JCOVE (it is only the Lite version) is very slick with a comprehensive range of training, single player and multi-player missions plus a decent mission editor. It replicates just about every bit of equipment that the UK might currently bring to a land battle and the only significant omissions so far are any maritime platforms (ships for the uninitiated!) although the promo videos included on the DVD imply a maritime capability, as does the presence of the Lynx HMA.8 above…

I’m very keen to see VBS2 (the underlying game engine) go fully joint as that will add a richness and depth to training that we only dreamed of back in the late 90s when we first started to experiment with off the shelf games to support training…possibly more to follow in a few days when I drill into it in more depth…

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Posted in The Thursday/Friday War, Uncategorized | Tagged Afghanistan, Chalet, COIN, Interbella, Simulation, Tribal Engagement Teams | Leave a reply

Viewing the future through the lens of Interbella

Posted on 29 October 2009 by SJPONeill
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My mission yesterday was to review the US Army Capstone Concept (another ACC) and feed some comment back in through the Small Wars Council. I got to page 38 just before 5pm (mercifully the last dozen or so pages are just summaries and glossaries). The ‘mercifully’ comment is probably a clue that I was less than happy with the result – correct.  There isn’t very much comment on the Small Wars discussion thread for this document – probably because it is a chore to work through and is somewhat of a disappointment:

  • It reads as though it has been written by a team of writers who are probably not even in the same part of the country let alone the same building or room. Parts of it are quite disjointed and it does not flow as smoothly as a key capstone publication must – if you actually want anyone to read it. Possibly, hopefully, the publically released draft is an early one and the current draft is more polished and advanced.
  • Most of the writing is rather verbose and clumsy with overly complex sentences and long, sometimes almost incoherent, paragraphs.
  • At 55 pages including glossaries, indexes etc, it is too long. All the key concepts are in the first 10-20 pages and I believe you could turn out a good product in no more than 30 pages.
  • An essential quality for the author of a Future Operating Concept has to be an imagination. After a not too bad start, the draft document reverts to describing current not future scenarios. There is ample open source material available to analysis to get a feel for what a future force for 2016-2028 have to face and then reverse engineer back into the capabilities and qualities that force may need.
  • It needs a catchy name like the  Complex Warfighting, and Adaptive Campaigning developed by the Aussies or even our own Precision Manouevre.

What really gets me is that drafting a futures concept isn’t hard…yeah, sure, you have to think and bit and maybe get out of the square…look at the Australians, it wasn’t even two months ago that they had John Birmingham out to Pucka to chat about what 2020 warfare might look like (which reminds me I must chase that up and see if anyone at FDG took any notes from that session)…even TRADOC which owns the COIN Center had Josh Wineera present the Interbella [link goes to the Powerpoint] model, again no more than a couple of months ago…you need a couple of people with a bit of imagination…I just did a bit of a blogjack and suggested on Cheeseburger Gothic that JB and those who contributed to his future war thread might want to contribute to the US Complexity and Uncertainty document…

We were talking about Interbella [link goes to the article in Colloquium] products yesterday,  while Josh chunks away at his broader thesis; specifically a play-book in three parts, targeting strategic, operational and tactical levels, focussed on managing complexity and uncertainty; no more than 25 pages and written in simple practical terms…oh, like a Marine Corps publication, you say? Yep, simple, concise and cuts to the chase…

So on the drive home last night I started to think about what might happen if you applied the Interbella model to the Future Operating Concept that the US Army is developing. Even though, Interbella uses a solar system analogy, it’s not rocket science…it might look like this:

  • What is the sun, or may be suns, that everything rotates around?
  • What are the things we know, that we’re pretty sure will stay the same…the planets perhaps?
  • Toss in some dark matter…things we think are there or that may occur but we just can’t prove it at the moment…
  • What happens perhaps when some of these factors, possibly innocuous on their own, align?
  • Consider what might be the rogue comets…things perhaps that may be less likely but most dangerous…911, Pearl Harbor, topping ArchDuke Ferdinand, collapse of the Berlin Wall…
  • Consider the broad approaches and strategies that might mitigate these factors…

Uh-oh, suddenly, we’re almost there…a fledgling FOC…

The discussion on Jim Gant’s Tribal Engagement Team strategy continues on Steven Pressfield’s blog. I like his comment today regarding the way that Jim Gant has produced this paper…no one asked him or compelled him to write…but by doing so and placing it out there in the webspace, it has attracted a degree and depth of comment and feedback that would be unlikely if it had to worm its way through a formal hierarchical structure…go the Information Militia!! When I think about it, Interbella is another example of the same sort of initiative…someone just got off their bum and did something…

I’m in Waiouru today and it’s snowing quite heavily…if I had remembered the cable for my camera , I would post an image of Waiouru In Springtime!!

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Posted in The Thursday/Friday War | Tagged COIN, COIN Center, Future War, Information Militia, Interbella, John Birmingham, Tribal Engagement Teams | Leave a reply

Things that go well together…

Posted on 24 October 2009 by SJPONeill
2

Bert and Ernie…

Fred and Ginger…

Fish and Filo

I’ve been hanging out to try a fish and filo package for a while and thought that I would surprise Carmen with dinner when she got home last night. Lessons Learned:

  • Where it says use three sheets of filo, use three sheets of filo. Otherwise your herbed cheese filling will melt through the pastry and require an urgent transfer from flat oven tray to over dish to prevent spillover into the depths of the oven.
  • When folding filo packages, fold the ends in first and THEN roll. This tidily secures the ends and is less likely to crack the filo. Place the filling on one edge not in the middle of the sheet – this makes it easier to roll.
  • When making a leek sauce to be served under the filo packages, go over on the leek – what looks like heaps on the chopping board becomes barely enough for two once cooked up with herbs, pine nuts and cream. More is less, way more is enough…
  • The parsnip/turnip/carrot/kumara puree served in a scooped out potato half was a good idea but execution needs work. Baking these in tinfoil seemed like a good idea at the time but I can’t remember why now – it probably would have worked if I had literally spiced it up a bit – a better way would have been a straight bake sans foil. This would also have meant the spud cooking time would = filo cooking time.

Presentation needed work but it tasted primo.

Score:

Fish and filo 6/10

Leek and pine nuts 7/10

Potato halves with vegetable puree 4/10

Total: 17/30 which is still more than half!!!!

Afghanistan and TET

I’ve really bitten over this comment on Steven Pressfield’s  One Tribe At A Time thread. [PDF: The “How” of Tribal Engagment – Steven Pressfield] My first reaction to Jim Gant’s Tribal Engagement Teams (TET – possibly an unfortunate acronym, remembering another COIN war) was ‘…yep, here we go again – more taking lessons from other wars and blindly hammering them into the round hole of the current war in Afghanistan…‘ Right up to the point, where the stated aim for the Afghan campaign was reaffirmed as creating an environment that could not be reoccupied by Al-Qaeda and its ilk. Against that objective in an essentially tribal culture like Afghanistan, the TET concept makes way more sense than free fire zones, big guns and high tech:

It is debatable whether the ‘clear zones of fire’ (free fire zones from another war?) or technological advantages are major contributors to a successful conclusion to this campaign (an Afghanistan that can not be reoccupied by AQ or its like?) At best the technology is an enabler for the initiatives that may lead to success; free fire zones, IMHO, are a legacy from conventional (Fulda Gap) mindsets and do not meet the spirit of proportionality, discrimination and precision required for countering irregular threats in a complex environment. It is these that may be more suited for “..low conflict area which is in relatively pro-government hands…” and NOT for an environment like Afghanistan where ‘everyone’ (outside the cities) has traditionally been armed – the only real way to discriminate between good guys, bad guys, fence-sitters and genuine non-combatants (who may still be armed) is up close and personal. This why, over the last week or so, I have gone from mild opposition to the TET concept to a firm advocate. After eight years of high-tech and big guns (which have proven of limited utility in other low level wars), it is time to get back to first principles:

  • ditch any coalition partners are can’t/won’t step up to the plate, and/or won’t comply with the theatre strategy. This is not peacekeeping where the number of different flags waving in the wind outside the theatre HQ is a reportable metric: this is war fighting with no time for passengers or social members.
  • Confirm the campaign objectives; identify the lines of operation to achieve those objectives; and then implement the tactical operations necessary to progress those lines. This isn’t COIN/CIT-specific – it must be 101 material from just about any military school in the Western world.
  • Implement the best Information Operations campaign on the planet to seize the new high ground – Al-Jazeera will fight you for it.

It’s all very easy to pick holes in concepts like Tribal Engagement Teams and that’s how I started. BUT it is even easier to pick holes in the current strategy where we once again seem to be winning all the battles and losing the two wars (in-theatre and home front).”

The crux of a successful lessons is analysing and validating observations, issues and lessons (OIL – yes, it really is all about OIL) against your current context – not trying to hammer a square peg into a round hole with your forehead. We saw this when the ‘experts’ all trumpeted the absolute need to implement a Malayan Emergency-style COIN campaign in Iraq. The fact this campaign’ success was due to a number of unique demographic and geographic factors that definitely are not duplicated in Iraq was lost on the ‘experts’. They also overlooked that while the official end of the Emergency was in 1960, it was not until 1988 that the last of the Communist Terrorists (CT) surrendered to Malaysian authorities.

In my ever so humble opinion, I think that Jim Gant has analysed the current situation and campaign objectives in Afghanistan, developed a model and then validated it against that analysis. I doubt there are many other who could same that they have done the same, certainly not those from the big guns and high tech schools of thought…what was that about lessons from other wars…?

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Posted in Masterchef Raurimu, The Thursday/Friday War | Tagged Afghanistan, COIN, Iraq, Jim Gant, lessons, Malayan Emergency, Tribal Engagement Teams | 2 Replies

Counterpoints…

Posted on 21 October 2009 by SJPONeill
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…a miscellany today…largely from tag surfing today while waiting for slow sites to load…

I don’t agree with everything in this post from Rebecca Griffin but the information on the real cost of this Afghan War helps add perspective when we question the aims of the conflict – if the aim is really to counter Al-Qaeda, then for these $$$ could we not be smarter about it: Jim Gant’s Tribal Engagement Team concept starts to look even better…I do think, though, if reading posts like Rebecca’s, we need to remain cognisant of what Afghanistan might be like if the US (and nato in deliberate lower case)  wasn’t there and how a withdrawal will actually work – we don’t want to be seeing helicopters off the Embassy roof again and dealing with a another generation of ‘boat people’….

Keeping with a COIN theme, People First provides some guidance on using the ‘New Social Media (NSM)’. Interesting in its own right but, still thinking COIN, do these sound familiar (direct quotes in italics):

And such a relationship can only be lengthened if both parties are happy and satisfied through two things:

1) the company (security forces?) listening to their stakeholders (‘the people’?); and

2) the stakeholders (‘the people’?) giving honest information, and feedback regarding a company’s (security forces?) product and services (strategy?).

Like, y’know, we don’t what they really want and they don’t really know why we’re here or what we want…and it gets better:

The way to go is for companies (security forces?) to squeeze all the information that they can from their stakeholders (‘the people’?) and use it to their advantage. Not only will the company (security forces?) prosper but also the stakeholders (‘the people’?) would be happy and satisfied. Could this be what GEN Vance means when he talks about getting ‘the people’ to make a choice? I’m not a big fan of the ‘our way or the highway’ approach to COIN but this does highlight a clear breakdown in understanding on all sides, the Taliban being at least one other player in the game..uh-oh that’s getting Clausewitzian: ‘the people’, the military, and the (shadow) government…hmmm…

On one of the CAC blogs there is a tactical decision conundrum (we used to call them games but this is serious now) regarding a sniper and an armed child. It’s a lose/lose one but the discussion is interesting and passionate – for me it immediately brings to mind Jim Molan’s observation on the need to have DAMCON preprepared for such situations so that we can place the responsibility back on those who would use children in war…as too who would or who wouldn’t shoot, that can only lies in the hands and the heart of the shooter…

…and ethics and children brings us to my final point for the day, and I really do (yes, I must) take issue with John Birmingham over Jessica Watson, currently bidding to become the world’s youngest circumnavigating solo sailor – his stance in both Cheeseburger Gothic and his Brisbane Times column,Blunty, is why not? Well, here’s why not JB: it’s fine to let these things happen, let your teen daughter sail solo around the world and fake your 6 year old son getting trapped in a runaway balloon, or driving your family into the eye of a hurricane…right up to the point where to you want other people to risk their lives bailing these idiots out – it’s alright so long as you are prepared to accept that Search and Rescue will say “not our problem to rescue this silly tart when she gets into strife again“. Let’s not forget that she couldn’t even get out of port without hitting another vessel and those container ships are kick-arse big ships: it’s not like she just missed seeing an itty-bitty dinghy….Of course, no self-respecting SAR organisation is going to abandon anyone without a fight so here’s hoping that JB and co will be happy enough to help foot the bill when she needs rescuing – all in the name of “…doing something other than sitting on the couch, inhaling Mars Bars and watching ‘reality’ TV…“

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Posted in The Thursday/Friday War | Tagged Afghanistan, COIN, COIN Center, Information Militia, Information Operations, Jim Molan, John Birmingham, Running the War in Iraq, Tribal Engagement Teams | Leave a reply

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SJPONeill

SJPONeill

Retired(ish) and living on the side of a mountain. I love reading and writing, pottering around with DIY in the garden and the kitchen, watching movies and building models from plastic and paper...I have two awesome daughters, two awesome grand-daughters and two awesome big dogs...lots of awesomeness around me...

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