Stupid is…

Forrest Gump had it so right…some classic examples of practical application of the Gump Doctrine in the last couple of weeks…

First prize must go to the Taliban which persists in stirring up trouble in Kabul. How hard is it to sit on your hands for a couple of years, tour the world, read a book and THEN take over the country once NATO and the US have packed up and gone home, secure in the knowledge that Afghanistan has worked…?

The Tea Party are always Top Ten ‘Gump-ers’ and this example, albeit from Mother Jones, is a classic…let’s not build any more infrastructure because Al-Qaeda will just blow it up – this would be the same AQ that got lucky ONCE in the US, once in Madrid and struck out badly in the UK with attacks on physical infrastructure?

If anyone doesn’t believe me—England and Spain. Now, if we have a more decentralized mass-transit system using buses, if the terrorists blow up a single bus, we can work around that. When they blow up a rail, that just brings the system to a grinding halt. So how much security are we going to have on this rail system, and how much will it cost?

Yeah, dude, let’s just take the horse instead…more telling is this rebuttal from The Onion:

Here’s what Al Qaeda’s new leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, said in a video released in July: 

The al-Qaeda network is fully prepared to continue the jihad against the American infidels by launching deadly attacks, but your outdated and rusting transportation infrastructure needs to be completely overhauled for those strikes even to be noticed. We want to turn your bridges into rubble, but if we claimed credit for making them collapse, nobody would ever believe us.

And in this week’s third place, just when you thought he might be ‘getting it’ here’s Mike Yawn lipping off again…if anyone ever doubts whether there really are some dumb-as (second ‘s’ optional) people (the much-vaunted ‘the people’?) around, just check out his fan base like some of the clowns posting on this Yawn FB post:

One Day this American Soldier May Try to Kill Me

He’s stationed now at Kandahar Air Field. I’ve warned the Army about him numerous times. I have little doubt that he will attempt to kill me if he gets the chance. He’s a US Soldier named CJ Grisham. He published this on Facebook this week in regard to me: “I want to rip his head off and piss down his windpipe!”

I cannot warn the US Army loud enough that this Soldier is unstable. They ignore my back channel warnings.

And again today…

Criminal American Soldiers

Only a small percentage of US troops become murderers, but it happened here and it happened in Iraq.

The warning signs were there. I have cautioned only twice about dangerous American soldiers. The first one committed suicide last year after my repeated warnings that he was dangerous. I told numerous key people that this soldier might want to kill me. He’s dead now. The second one is Master Sergeant CJ Grisham, now stationed and armed at Kandahar Airfield. Our military is playing with fire by keeping this man armed and in uniform.

Let’s not forget that Mikey is currently embedded with a US unit in Afghanistan – and has been doing some good work – and so, you might think, would be less likely to snap at the hand currently (literally) feeding him…What’s CJ Grisham’s real sin? He dares criticise Saint Mikey…that’s it.

Mikey, there is a big difference between someone fantasing about what they would like to do to you “I want to rip his head off and piss down his windpipe!”,  threatening to do so…”I ‘m going to rip his head off and piss down his windpipe!”, and then actually  acting on those wordsOne of these days, you’ll be a big kid and understand…in the meantime, try not to cry too much if you get disembedded again…or maybe even slapped with a libel suit yourself…I mean, you are after all abusing your position to make unsubstantiated allegations about a serving member of the force that is currently supporting you – how big do you think its sense of funny really is?

And finally, Australia which, having been thumped at the Global Oval Ball Competition (speaking of stupid…Rugby World Cup has been so heavily copyrighted that we can’t use the three words in close proximity to each other!) by Ireland, promptly resorted to accusing everyone of being mean to it…not like when the boot might be on the other foot, eh, Diggers? Even more embarrassing when, just like the much-reported misbehaving Government Ministers on opening night, not a single shred of evidence could be found to back up the bleating….so just for you guys, Seven Tips For Fans Going To Matches in New Zealand

So get over it!!

Weekly Photo Challenge: Fall

The theme for this week’s WordPress Photo Challenge is ‘Fall’ most likely because the season in the US is now Fall, which we in the civilised world know as ‘Autumn’…it’s a little moot for us where we are as 99.9% of all the trees are evergreens so Autumn is really more about a (possible) change in weather conditions i.e. here we don’t have the massive leaf dumps associated with the end of Summer and the beginning of Winter. I say possible change in weather conditions as we don’t really have a clear delineator for those either: today is the first day of daylight saving here (I’ve been ripped off an hour!!), normally a good sign of impending summer but the same time last year it was snowing!!

So, anyway, the line I’ve taken with this week’s challenge is the more common association with the word ‘fall’ and I dredged up this photo taken on a school camp early in 1981. I know it was early ’81 because late ’81 I wasn’t in school anymore…It’s at a place called Camp Iona on the Kakanui River south of Oamaru – no idea whether it’s still there or not… the slats supporting the upper bunk bed have been removed in anticipation of the unsuspecting occupant leaping up on the bed bed without performing a precautionary prank check…you’ll note that the occupant of the lower bed has placed himself safely at one end of his bed – maybe he was in on it?

Ten truths

I was motivated to write something this morning by this item from Tom Ricks  10 truths from the last decade that you could tattoo on an arm — or maybe a leg, based in turn on an article in the August issue of Marine Corps Gazette.  I’ll get to them in a minute.

As you all know, I like to head up each post with a picture (adding, of course, considerably to the drafting burden but a that’s a sacrifice I’m happy to make for you the reader!). In searching for a truth-themed image that was neither religious nor X Files in nature, I stumbled across Tip Top Tens, specifically it’s take on 10 Truths10 Truths That Will Change Your Life:

01 : The full name of Donald Duck: Donald Fauntleroy Duck.

02 : A giraffe can clean its own ears with its tongue.

03 : Millions of trees in the world are accidentally planted by squirrels who bury nuts and do not remember where they were hiding them.

04 : Eating an apple is more effective than drinking coffee to stay awake.

05 : blue tooth brushes are used more than the red.

06 : Nobody can lick his own elbow, it is impossible to touch it with his tongue.

07 : The pig is the only animal that burns with the sun more than man.

08 : Right-handers live, on average, nine years longer than lefties.

09 : Laughing during the day makes you sleep better at night.

10 : Approximately 75% of people who read this article try to lick your elbow.

And, no, I neither attempted 02 nor 06! I take no issue with any of these truths however I can not quite say the same with the ones summarised by Tom Ricks:

— Take the high ground at night so you own it in the morning.

Yep…an oldie but a goodie…

— It may be counterintuitive, but you are probably safer dismounted than in your vehicles, preferably before contact.

Situational – depends on the vehicle and the war; also very land-centric thinking (shame, Marines!) aviators and sailors would probably not agree…except for the old Iraqi doctrine of flying with one hand on the stick and the other on the little yellow handle.

— The bait and ambush is a classic from the ancient Greeks up to today.

Yep…because people STILL keep falling for it.

— Why do we keep using the column formation in what is clearly an advance to contact, rather than using wedges and echelons?

Because we are fixated on staying on the roads? Or…the roads are the only places our vehicles will go? Every in the J, there is an overwhelming temptation to follow tracks and trails – never a good idea…

— Every Marine a rifleman, and every NCO a leader and fire support coordinator.

Marine/soldier/sailor/airman when on the ground ‘someone else’ will not bail you out…!

— These are seasoned fighters with a wealth of experience fighting against Jomini-type tactics and a sense of personal honor and bravery that means they are looking to close and kill, not snipe and run.

The difference between a war and peace support…don’t go to either seeking to do the other…

— If you are not using Small Wars Journal and Company Command, you should be.

If no one is giving you PME, then DIY…only you can make you smarter…

— Afghanistan is a battle for the provision of governance from the ground up, from the outside in, not from the top down, Kabul out.

True, but not really a ‘truth’ per se…fight the war you’re in, not the war you want…

— The Taliban, while at some level perhaps associated with al Qaeda, is not al Qaeda.

As above…fight the war you’re in, not the war you want…

— Is this the right war?

The squiggly bit on the end (?) makes this not a truth at all but a question – clearly not enough attention paid (nor wooden ruler applied) during Miss Brown’s Year 2 English classes…

So only five truths really and five elements of political grandstanding that aren’t really that useful at the tactical level…the first five though are well worth picking up and running with as they are proven, if not learned or applied…

Weekly Photo Challenge: Faces

Penny

This week’s WordPress Weekly Photo Challenge Both busy and a bit under the weather this week, physiologically and meterologically, so short and to the point…

Pacific Dreams

Just perusing Facebook during one of my breaks and noticed that the New Zealand short film, Pacific Dreams, is an early announcement for the Show Me Shorts Film Festival here in November. Although I support most NZ film initiatives, Pacific Dreams is of particular interest because it is the brainchild of an old friend, Dave Strong and his company, Morepork Films. There’s nothing quite so satisfying as seeing someone leave the service and actually do what they set out to do and quite successfully too.

PACIFIC DREAMS was also accepted to compete in the Mobile SIFF Competition at the prestigious 2011 Shanghai International Film Festival in June, and screened at the recent 2011 New York City International Film Festival.

PACIFIC DREAMS was a recent winner at the 2011 Rhode Island International Film Festival, with Dame Kate Harcourt taking home first prize for Best Female Actress for her role.

Even though my part in the Lord of the Rings trilogy was minor and administrative, I have a healthy respect for the time, effort, resources and skills it takes to bring even a  short film to the big screen and so have nothing but respect for Dave for having the courage of his convictions and staying the course with his dream. Hope this is but the start of an illustrious and developing career in film…

For those interested and geographically able, the 2011 dates and locations for Show Me Shorts that are confirmed so far are:

Capitol Cinema, Auckland – 3-13 November

Bridgeway Cinema, Auckland – 3-13 November

Waiheke Island Community Cinema, Auckland – 3-13 November

Matakana Cinemas, Matakana – 3-13 November

The Internationalist, Rothesay Bay – 3-13 November

Paramount, Wellington – 10-20 November

Hollywood, Sumner, Christchurch – 10-20 November

Rialto Cinema, Dunedin – 10-20 November

Bay City Cinemas, Tauranga – 17-27 November

Mayfair Cinema, Kaikoura – 17-27 November

The Regent, Taumarunui – 17-19 November

The Monkey House, Whitianga – 5-15 January (2012)

Rapt to see the screenings planned for Taumarunui but, curses!! I will be shivering in European snow that week…will have to keep any eye out for any other local-ish screenings – or make sure I pick up the compilation DVD when it comes out…previous years DVDs are available here

Remember…

Courtesy of DoctrineMan!! Like Pearl Harbor…a day that changed all our lives and set the world on a new course…no doubt lots will bleat about about the super-hero imagery…but the US is still like Ghostbusters: when it all hits the fan, who ya gonna call…?

Also courtesy of DM, a sad note that actor Cliff Robertson passed away today, aged 88…veteran of greats like PT-109, 633 Squadron, Brainstorm,  and Too Late The Hero

One of my all time favourite movies and books – the first one anyway – maybe, after The Dambusters, Peter Jackson will remake this, especially now that it looks like we will have at least one flying Mossie down here soon…

 

Weekly Photo Challenge: Textured

This could just as easily be a good entry for a ‘shiny’ challenge as one for ‘texture’…it is the prototype Fisher P-75 fighter in the R&D Hall at the National Museum of the USAF near Dayton, Ohio…I’d seen many pictures of aircraft in natural metal finish before but this was the first time I was ever up close and personal with one…”Oooo…shiiiiny” was my first response…”Man, that’s big!” was the second: because the hall is so packed it was difficult to get decent shots of some of the larger aircraft simply because there wasn’t enough room to back away…Hence I shot this one into the light and was surprised when it came out so well…

My next take on ‘texture’ is this afterburner can from the B-1B ‘Bone’  (B-One – get it??) in the modern hall at the Museum…this is where they dump hundreds of litres of raw fuel in order to get more thrust from the engines – and so the crew can see the needle on the fuel gauge move – downward!

And finally…

One iteration of the Interceptor from Mad Max at the recent Scale Model Expo in Wellington…it is relatively simple to get smooth shiny unblemished surfaces on models, it is somewhat more difficult to give an impression of dirt, grime and roughness…I thought this builder pulled it off rather well…

The application of FM 3-24 principles and success in COIN

Staying up lat-ish last night to watch Torchwood: Miracle Day when I knew I had a 0300 start this morning was probably not the best idea I ever had but, like many, things, it seemed like a good idea at the time and I know that if I record something I only rarely go back and actually watch it…

It’s still very dark outside and the webcast from the COIN Center at Fort Leavenworth has just ended…the topic for discussion this morning related to principles identified in the RAND study Victory Has A Thousand Fathers and their application to FM 3-24, specifically from the perspective of what an updated FM 3-24 might include.

I really don’t like Victory Has A Thousand Fathers – the idea is good: to study historical COIN campaigns and determine what truisms or principles can be derived from those campaigns.  This, I believe, is a necessary and long overdue step in the development of useful doctrine for the contemporary environment as for too long there have only really been two dominant schools of thought in this area:

  • The false prophets of Malaya who fail to truly understand that campaign and whom only glean the most superficial principles from it, namely a misapplied emphasis on ‘hearts and minds’, and who ignore the context in which that philosophy was applied and how it was applied.
  • The COINdinsta who forget that FM 3-24 was a seminal, timely and truly useful publication – for the situation that the US faced in Iraq, in 2006 and 2006. It has limited applicability as writ for dogmatic application in other campaigns.

Although I agree with the findings of Victory Has A Thousand Fathers as briefed this morning, they are weakened by the paper’s overly narrow and selective focus:

  • The scope of the study is restricted to only 1978-2008, omitting the post-WW2  ‘golden age’ of counter-insurgency and many other critical campaigns of thus nature. While there would have been a need perhaps to keep the initial sample size to a manageable number, this arbitrary period omits a large proportion of relevant campaigns.
  • The list of COIN campaigns 1978-2008 is somewhat limited: missing are any of the campaigns fought in Southern Africa in this period, as are those from the Middle East including Israel v Palestinians, and Iraq v Kurds;  East Timor is not listed, nor is the campaign in Southern Thailand – while it is flawed in other ways, at least both of these campaigns appear in David Kilcullen’s The Accidental Guerrilla.
  • Kiwis and Australians will be surprised to see that Papua New Guinea 1988-1998 which must be the Bougainville campaign is listed as ‘red’ i.e. a failure for the host nation government. The island of Bougainville is still very much part of PNG and that the world has heard little from that part of the world since the withdrawal of the monitoring force in 2002, is a testament to the effectiveness of that force 1998-2002.

The principles for COIN derived from Victory Has A Thousand Fathers were on slides that I missed during the discussion (too slow with the screen grabs) so I’ll cover those in a couple of days once they are posted on the COIN Centre events page.  What follows are some of the other insights from this morning.

There is a case for the use of force in Irregular Warfare but first, let’s stop calling this COIN. As we know, COIN is a very specific and very narrow slice of the broader realm of IW: the continuing abuse of the term ‘COIN’ to describe operations in the contemporary operating environment unhelpfully muddies the waters. Specifically. these slides discuss the repressive use of force but we need to consider this just as much as we have to consider the other side of the pendulum that it’s all about being nice to everybody.

One of the most refreshing things about FM 3-24 during our review of COIN doctrine in 2007-08 was that it acknowledged the need for use of force within a campaign, a most realistic diversion from other nations’ COIN doctrine which was based upon either experience in peace-support operations (whole different ballgame), super-localised internal issues (go Northern Ireland!), or Malaya (myth city). If there was no potential for the application of force, then the military is not needed i.e. the military is not a cheap labour force, nor an easy substitute for the other government agencies and non-government organisations that should be there.

While FM 3-24 does have a strong population-centric element, it was written for a specific campaign (Iraq) in a specific period (2005-6). That notwithstanding, the population-centric elements are well-balanced with other key principles and truisms for irregular warfare and I think that many critics only cherry-pick thos easpects they want in order to criticise and few if any consider the publication as a whole.

This is the Hierarchy of Assessment referred in the last two points:

In simple terms, it all comes down to national interests linked to campaign objectives and being able to measure the same; and at the tactical level, specifically, as recommended below,  link development objectives to those campaign objectives and national objectives i.e. no more AID for its own sake. This just creates legacy dependency issues.

One of the questions asked this morning was “…I’ve recently returned from RC-S .  Agree with HNG but it does not to have a national flair to it.  If a specific district enforces the govt rep there, the HNG should be deemed endorsed…” This is the real rub in Afghanistan where the role and legitimacy of central government are in an entirely different context to that of Iraq. Shifting the emphasis for effective government from a central to a district government focus can produce strong district/regional government but usually at the expense of the central government. But then as we discussed in the opening day of the IW Summit in May, a ‘horses for courses’ approach to Afghanistan might find that a federalist system of strong provinces and weak central government might be the best for Afghanistan – after all, it seems to have worked OK for the last two millennia…

As the US Army and USMC gear up to update FM 3-24, the time is ripe for some robust discussion on the content of its next iteration. Most definitely the sections of air and maritime power need to be expanded and updated. The forum for thoughts on this topic is at the COIN Centre Blog….

Weekly Photo Challenge: Path

Purakanui Steps

This week’s challenge shows the path from the road down to a little whaling cottage we used to own in Purakanui – the little village I also used in the ‘Old Fashioned’ challenge.

The cottage was really small...

...with a rusticly basic kitchen and two small bedrooms...

...but it had pretty cool views across the inlet - even though this one's on a crappy day...

Avast, me hearties…

With effect yesterday, a new law comes into effect here that introduces penalties for people detected downloading copyrighted material off the internet…

Driving home from Wellington last night, I was listening to Radio Live as I do until I find the headphones for my MP3 so I can go back to my Audible books – still bracing myself to carry on listening to the current one with George Friedman prattling on about how Turkey, Mexico and Poland are the next generation of regional powers…Anyway, of course, this new law – which is no surprise as it was well socialised before becoming law – was the hot topic of discussion, as it was on breakfast TV yesterday morning…

It amazes me how InternetNZ and TUANZ can blatantly bleat about how unfair it all is that current international copyright law does not allow free downloading of copyrighted content and how copyright is all just one big conspiracy by US interests (ho-hum…yawn) to maintain the current outdated copyright system that expects that users might actually have to pay for copyrighted product…

Disinformation was rampant from both InternetNZ and TUANZ but the simple bottom line is that both need to ante up and accept that illegal access to copyrighted material, even under the pseudo-glamour of piracy, is nothing more than plain and simple, black and white THEFT!!! Just the same as hopping a fence and helping themselves to stock and produce just because there is no big sign written in geek that says ‘Private Property’; or bowling into someone’s house because they left the front door open and again just helping themselves…

The reason that they are all worried is because the Government has introduced some quick hefty penalties – in fairness, with a graduated system of warnings – for offending account holders…up to $15,000 per offence – don’t want a $15k fine? Then DON’T STEAL, you THIEVING geeks…!!!!

Worried that your neighbour will tap into your wireless and download copyrighted material? Then you are too dumb to have an internet account…

Worried that your kids will earn you a $15k fine? They will probably find a way to do this anyway – at least illegal downloads don’t involve fire, explosives or fast cars…

Worried that your employees will abuse the work account? Introduce individual accounts and police them like you should be doing anyway…

Laziness and stupidity are no excuses for THEFT.

Want to see the latest series of Castle, Justified, Thunderbirds, etc before it arrives here? Either breakaway from the box and get a life or buy it from Amazon et al – YOU LOSERS!

It sickens me that the me-me-me generation just don’t get that there are no freebies and that there is this thing called work that means to get get money to buy you things…the internet does not = Notting Hill style help yourself…I’ve been around enough activities creating intellectual property for long enough to have a healthy respect for those who create and nothing but contempt for those who steal be it with a brick through the window or a dodgy file sharer somewhere in Eastern Europe…

In other news

Happy Feet the Emperor Penguin {PDF: Penguin Happy Feet becomes a Wellington celebrity] is off home again. This was a bigger national story than a pensioner who laid dead in his flat for over a year.

The cost of the Christchurch earthquakes has almost doubled to just over $7billion – to counter this the government has invented discovered significant oil and gas under the southern ocean…

Teams for the Rugby World Cup have started to land this week – gee, I hope there is a ‘not-rugby’ channel for the next six weeks….