The application of FM 3-24 principles and success in COIN

Posted on 9 September 2011 by SJPONeill

Staying up lat-ish last night to watch Torchwood: Miracle Day when I knew I had a 0300 start this morning was probably not the best idea I ever had but, like many, things, it seemed like a good idea at the time and I know that if I record something I only rarely go back and actually watch it…

It’s still very dark outside and the webcast from the COIN Center at Fort Leavenworth has just ended…the topic for discussion this morning related to principles identified in the RAND study Victory Has A Thousand Fathers and their application to FM 3-24, specifically from the perspective of what an updated FM 3-24 might include.

I really don’t like Victory Has A Thousand Fathers – the idea is good: to study historical COIN campaigns and determine what truisms or principles can be derived from those campaigns. This, I believe, is a necessary and long overdue step in the development of useful doctrine for the contemporary environment as for too long there have only really been two dominant schools of thought in this area:

The false prophets of Malaya who fail to truly understand that campaign and whom only glean the most superficial principles from it, namely a misapplied emphasis on ‘hearts and minds’, and who ignore the context in which that philosophy was applied and how it was applied.

The COINdinsta who forget that FM 3-24 was a seminal, timely and truly useful publication – for the situation that the US faced in Iraq, in 2006 and 2006. It has limited applicability as writ for dogmatic application in other campaigns.

Although I agree with the findings of Victory Has A Thousand Fathers as briefed this morning, they are weakened by the paper’s overly narrow and selective focus:

The scope of the study is restricted to only 1978-2008, omitting the post-WW2 ‘golden age’ of counter-insurgency and many other critical campaigns of thus nature. While there would have been a need perhaps to keep the initial sample size to a manageable number, this arbitrary period omits a large proportion of relevant campaigns.

The list of COIN campaigns 1978-2008 is somewhat limited: missing are any of the campaigns fought in Southern Africa in this period, as are those from the Middle East including Israel v Palestinians, and Iraq v Kurds; East Timor is not listed, nor is the campaign in Southern Thailand – while it is flawed in other ways, at least both of these campaigns appear in David Kilcullen’s The Accidental Guerrilla.

Kiwis and Australians will be surprised to see that Papua New Guinea 1988-1998 which must be the Bougainville campaign is listed as ‘red’ i.e. a failure for the host nation government. The island of Bougainville is still very much part of PNG and that the world has heard little from that part of the world since the withdrawal of the monitoring force in 2002, is a testament to the effectiveness of that force 1998-2002.

The principles for COIN derived from Victory Has A Thousand Fathers were on slides that I missed during the discussion (too slow with the screen grabs) so I’ll cover those in a couple of days once they are posted on the COIN Centre events page. What follows are some of the other insights from this morning.

There is a case for the use of force in Irregular Warfare but first, let’s stop calling this COIN. As we know, COIN is a very specific and very narrow slice of the broader realm of IW: the continuing abuse of the term ‘COIN’ to describe operations in the contemporary operating environment unhelpfully muddies the waters. Specifically. these slides discuss the repressive use of force but we need to consider this just as much as we have to consider the other side of the pendulum that it’s all about being nice to everybody.

One of the most refreshing things about FM 3-24 during our review of COIN doctrine in 2007-08 was that it acknowledged the need for use of force within a campaign, a most realistic diversion from other nations’ COIN doctrine which was based upon either experience in peace-support operations (whole different ballgame), super-localised internal issues (go Northern Ireland!), or Malaya (myth city). If there was no potential for the application of force, then the military is not needed i.e. the military is not a cheap labour force, nor an easy substitute for the other government agencies and non-government organisations that should be there.

While FM 3-24 does have a strong population-centric element, it was written for a specific campaign (Iraq) in a specific period (2005-6). That notwithstanding, the population-centric elements are well-balanced with other key principles and truisms for irregular warfare and I think that many critics only cherry-pick thos easpects they want in order to criticise and few if any consider the publication as a whole.

This is the Hierarchy of Assessment referred in the last two points:

In simple terms, it all comes down to national interests linked to campaign objectives and being able to measure the same; and at the tactical level, specifically, as recommended below, link development objectives to those campaign objectives and national objectives i.e. no more AID for its own sake. This just creates legacy dependency issues.

One of the questions asked this morning was “…I’ve recently returned from RC-S . Agree with HNG but it does not to have a national flair to it. If a specific district enforces the govt rep there, the HNG should be deemed endorsed…” This is the real rub in Afghanistan where the role and legitimacy of central government are in an entirely different context to that of Iraq. Shifting the emphasis for effective government from a central to a district government focus can produce strong district/regional government but usually at the expense of the central government. But then as we discussed in the opening day of the IW Summit in May, a ‘horses for courses’ approach to Afghanistan might find that a federalist system of strong provinces and weak central government might be the best for Afghanistan – after all, it seems to have worked OK for the last two millennia…

As the US Army and USMC gear up to update FM 3-24, the time is ripe for some robust discussion on the content of its next iteration. Most definitely the sections of air and maritime power need to be expanded and updated. The forum for thoughts on this topic is at the COIN Centre Blog….

Avast, me hearties…

Posted on 2 September 2011 by SJPONeill

With effect yesterday, a new law comes into effect here that introduces penalties for people detected downloading copyrighted material off the internet…

Driving home from Wellington last night, I was listening to Radio Live as I do until I find the headphones for my MP3 so I can go back to my Audible books – still bracing myself to carry on listening to the current one with George Friedman prattling on about how Turkey, Mexico and Poland are the next generation of regional powers…Anyway, of course, this new law – which is no surprise as it was well socialised before becoming law – was the hot topic of discussion, as it was on breakfast TV yesterday morning…

It amazes me how InternetNZ and TUANZ can blatantly bleat about how unfair it all is that current international copyright law does not allow free downloading of copyrighted content and how copyright is all just one big conspiracy by US interests (ho-hum…yawn) to maintain the current outdated copyright system that expects that users might actually have to pay for copyrighted product…

Disinformation was rampant from both InternetNZ and TUANZ but the simple bottom line is that both need to ante up and accept that illegal access to copyrighted material, even under the pseudo-glamour of piracy, is nothing more than plain and simple, black and white THEFT!!! Just the same as hopping a fence and helping themselves to stock and produce just because there is no big sign written in geek that says ‘Private Property’; or bowling into someone’s house because they left the front door open and again just helping themselves…

The reason that they are all worried is because the Government has introduced some quick hefty penalties – in fairness, with a graduated system of warnings – for offending account holders…up to $15,000 per offence – don’t want a $15k fine? Then DON’T STEAL, you THIEVING geeks…!!!!

Worried that your neighbour will tap into your wireless and download copyrighted material? Then you are too dumb to have an internet account…

Worried that your kids will earn you a $15k fine? They will probably find a way to do this anyway – at least illegal downloads don’t involve fire, explosives or fast cars…

Worried that your employees will abuse the work account? Introduce individual accounts and police them like you should be doing anyway…

Laziness and stupidity are no excuses for THEFT.

Want to see the latest series of Castle, Justified, Thunderbirds, etc before it arrives here? Either breakaway from the box and get a life or buy it from Amazon et al – YOU LOSERS!

It sickens me that the me-me-me generation just don’t get that there are no freebies and that there is this thing called work that means to get get money to buy you things…the internet does not = Notting Hill style help yourself…I’ve been around enough activities creating intellectual property for long enough to have a healthy respect for those who create and nothing but contempt for those who steal be it with a brick through the window or a dodgy file sharer somewhere in Eastern Europe…

In other news

Happy Feet the Emperor Penguin {PDF: Penguin Happy Feet becomes a Wellington celebrity] is off home again. This was a bigger national story than a pensioner who laid dead in his flat for over a year.

The cost of the Christchurch earthquakes has almost doubled to just over $7billion – to counter this the government has ~~invented~~ discovered significant oil and gas under the southern ocean…

Teams for the Rugby World Cup have started to land this week – gee, I hope there is a ‘not-rugby’ channel for the next six weeks….

The earth moves

Posted on 25 August 2011 by SJPONeill

The US Parks Department reported some minor cracks on the pyramid at the top of the 555ft monument. Photograph: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

The unknown and unexpected is always scary…as we have learned this year, the Richter scale is very relative to proximity and depth so 5.9 could ‘mere’ or ‘frightening’ – if unexpected, more so in an area not noted for its earthquakes, probably closer to ‘frightening’ especially if in buildings without windows and/or a long way up…my favourite balcony near the top of the Holiday Inn Rosslyn doesn’t seem quite so appealing now…

Irregular activities needn’t be man-made nor that destructive to be destabilising…to sow that seed of doubt in things that only minutes before may have seemed safe and secure…to wonder what will be next (it’s probably named Irene!)…now is probably a good time to consider some bottled water and canned food (and a can-opener) for the basement and you really never do know…

A couple of elements of light humour though, from the quake, courtesy of Michael Yon…

Breaking News: it’s just been established by the administration that the DC earthquake occurred on a rare and obscure faultline, apparently known as “Bush’s Fault”.

Got an email from a friend that the Pentagon evacuated, and I see reports saying the same. Get back to work you Pentagon shammers! If the military panics, everybody panics. The Pentagon took a direct hit from an airliner and is still there. The Japanese will be laughing at the Pentagon. Get back to work you bunch of Pentagon ninnies. We have wars to run.

So while West Coasters might laugh, much as we all sniggered at Auckland’s ‘No lattes were spilled‘ 2.78 attempt, this was a very real fright in the supposedly stable DC area and will cause some ongoing inconvenience as buildings are checked for structural damage and robustness – better safe than sorry…

Who dares…

Posted on 20 August 2011 by SJPONeill

Have been offline since leaving home yesterday morning for a weekend in the big smoke…it was only a chance meeting of an old friend at the Expo this morning, ironically while chatting about Patient Tracking systems, that I learned that a member of the NZSAS team in Kabul had been fatally wounded during a rescue mission…

Our condolences to CO, officers and all members of the unit, another fallen in the line of duty, doing the business…a reminder that this is a dangerous but necessary business…

Getting it….

Posted on 11 July 2011 by SJPONeill

Not getting it…

One of my ongoing beefs with ‘modern’ COIN is the misperception is that successful COIN is all about being nice, of waging war without casualties (although casualties amongst one’s own soldiers appear to ‘OK’), and having this great expectation that one day ‘the people’ will just rise up, out of gratitude for the niceness shown them by the security forces and cast out the insurgents…

The simple fact is that this ‘doctrine’ is all lala-land, cloud cuckoo vunderland fantasy. That’s pretty much the theme of Wilf Owen’s article in the Spring 2011 edition of the British Army Review (I’d post a link to BAR but it seems that it is a highly classified publication and not one suited to easy intuitive location via the Power of Google), titled Killing Your Way To Control. He takes particular issues with statements like

Effective counterinsurgency provides human security to the population, where they live, 24 hours a day. This, not destroying the enemy, is the central task. (from Kilcullen’s The Accidental Guerrilla)

Unlike in general war, the objective is not the defeat or destruction of the enemy, but neutralisation of a threat to stable society. (from JDP 3-40)

And guess what? He is absolutely 100% correct! Was it Douglas MacArthur, addressing the cadets at West Point, who said something like “Your duty is clear and inviolate: to win our nation’s wars”? Something about “Victory, always victory”? Even if victory might mean achieving your objectives on your terms as opposed to victory always equating to absolute, grinding under the steel-shod boot, unconditional victory…

Use of the military is, should be, the final option in execution of national policy to achieve national objectives…because it is brutal and unpleasant – and effective when employed properly. The military should be used when other instruments in the DIME construct are not effective. That is not to say that once the military deploys, the rest of DIME takes for some time out; it just means that the lead agency has changed.

And what is it about the military that both makes it an option of last resort and one so effective? Simply…the use of force…brutal force, whether blunt or surgical, but brutal none the less because force can only be brutal. Who talks about let alone attempts to develop and apply ‘nice’ force? And this is Wilf’s point, and, for an irregular environment, encapsulated nicely in the extract he selects from the UK’s 2005 Land Operations…

Neutralising the insurgent and in particular the leadership forms part of a successful COIN strategy. Methods include killing, capturing, demoralising and deterring insurgents and promoting desertions. This is an area in which military forces can specialise and should be a focus for COIN training. The aim should be to defeat the insurgent on his own ground using as much force as is necessary, but no more.

Now we know that there are times, especially immediately following an intervention and lodgement when the only people who can realistically maintain and provide essential services like power, water, electricity, sewage and security are the military. Forget about some imaginary gendarmerie with shovels that will miraculously appear and relieve the military of such onerous and unpleasant tasks…never happen…

Nor is anyone saying that forces optimised for high-end force on force major combat operations can successfully instantly reconfigure, collectively and individually, into an irregular warfare scenario. If there was one myth that was majorly debunked in the last decade it was the “If you train up (for MCO), you can easily step down (for COIN)”. Thus, a choice must be made between a dual force optimised one side for MCO and irregular warfare on the other: just to be real clear, two forces – NOT one size fits all; or a deliberate acceptance that one’s forces will only be capable of engaging in one form of conflict OR the other. Most nations forced towards the latter choice will probably tend towards a specialisation in irregular warfare up to a limit of national capability on the spectrum of operations.

And while the logical threads in population-centricity unravel, this does not mean that the military should isolate itself from ‘the people’. GEN Petraeus was right in Baghdad in 2006 when he brought the troops back in amongst ‘the people’ and ended the daily tactical commuting/sallying from the FOBs. The military is not some horde to be hidden away – if ‘the people’ is where the adversary(s) are, then that’s where the military should be – configured and trained for the application of force in that specific environment just as they would/should be for any other unique environment.

And on the spectrum of operations…let’s not forget that it is NOT the linear progression from peacetime to all-out warfare that is it portrayed as…a more accurate model would have peace in the middle, surrounded by a ring that includes peacetime engagement (a smidgen up from peace), peacekeeping, peacemaking, irregular warfare, HADR, limited war (e.g. the Falklands War), major war (DESERT STORM, OIF Part 1) and full-on all-out war (Red Storm Rising).

Imagine that ring being like a trembler switch (who didn’t used to watch Danger: UXB or The Professionals…Steady, it’s a trembler!?) from which a nation can flick from peace to any state around that ring, and from that state then flick to another and another or back to the stable centre. Accepting that there are two clear extremes, peace and all-out war, most nations would assess the planning for one, peace, carries too much risk as it would naïve to expect peace to remain constant in the most benign scenario. Similarly few nations can afford to truly step up to the full range of capabilities required for the other extreme. Thus most opt for a point in-between.

But regardless of where that point may lie, the primary role and output of that national military force is the application of force. That is why the lead group in the Air and Space Interoperability Council is the Force Application group, with six important but supporting groups. That is why, in the continental staff system, the staff branches are NOT all created equal – operations leads, supported by whatever combination of numbers floats your boat – whoever heard of logistics or intelligence supported by operations? That is because the ops branch is all about creating and delivering effects – and the effect that the military delivers best…is…force.

So you might imagine just how it felt as I scrolled through my ‘most recent’ view on Facebook to see the link to Wilf’s paper first from DoctrineMan! (still not sure about people who include punctuation in their name) and a ways further down, the original post at Small Wars Journal. Even more so when I realised that Wilf, who I have spent more time at Small Wars disagreeing with than ever agreeing, had authored it.

What was disappointing was the number of people on both DoctrineMan! And Small Wars fixated on pulling every literal point of contention from the article. I was sadly reminded of the 45k+ morons who ‘liked’ the Boycott Macsyna King Book page; or the moral minority who all ‘just know’ that Casey Anthony killed her daughter and that there was no need for all that legal dues process stuff: let’s just string her up!! Wonder sometimes if western society is descending to a point where the capacity for independent thought is lost…and we all just become drones circling the brightest, loudest light…

The irony in his article that he does not point out is that while British Army doctrine in 2005 included the quote above from Land Operations (now that I think about it, I was working at Uphaven on CLAW 1 when it was released and got to bring the first copies back home), this was the same period that the UK was trumpeting the success of Malaya and the triumph myth of ‘hearts and minds’ that set irregular warfare back decades. If only the UK had read and applied its own doctrine… (What’s that? You read doctrine? And apply it?)

So where does this leave us? Wilf has articulated what we have probably known along, what the dead Germans told us is right, that the military is about the application of force, not the application of ‘nice’, as an extension of policy. That force may be applied to create the conditions where others can see to the building of a stable society, hopefully where such existed at some stage before; equally as much it may be applied to simply attrite an adversary to the point where further resistance is either untenable or impossible.

But, harking back to the dead Germans again, the ultimate target for force is one specific part of what is popularly accepted as the Clausewitzian Trinity: of ‘the people’, the action arm and the leadership of any collective entity, military force ultimately targets the leadership to either eliminate it as the driving force behind the organisation, or convince it to consider and change its ways. That’s what the military is for….

Breaking Silence

Posted on 1 July 2011 by SJPONeill

In Get Smart, this was funny…

The zone of silence put up by the Kahui and King families around the deaths of the three-month old Kahui twins in 2006 is not.

Debate has raged this week over the proposed publication of a book, Breaking Silence, based on the recollections of the twins’ mother, Macsyna King, and authored by locally well-known conspiracy theorist and wannabe whistle-blower Ian Wishart, described in one contemporary blog item as

…writing investigative books about spaceships piloted by lock ness monsters that are really demons disguised by Satan to implement global control via global warming legislation because global warming is a hoax created by the Free Masons told what to do by a Greenpeace lesbian Trans Gendered Queen who secretly runs the world…

He’s probably not that bad but having read a few of his Investigate magazine articles, there is some substance to the description. That notwithstanding, he fronted up and presented very well on RadioLive this afternoon with Willie Jackson (JT opted out due to previous ‘issues’ with Wishart – what a woossy).

The catalyst for this debate is a Facebook page Boycott the Macsyna King Book that seeks to ensure that

“…Somebody like this should not be allowed to profit from preaching her perverted view of the horrific events which led to the deaths of the only two children who hadn’t already been taken from her by CYF’s…“

At the time of my writing 45,911 people have ‘liked’ it on, although I do note that in the last couple of minutes at least one of my friends who had ‘liked’ it had dropped off the list…common sense starting to break out perhaps? To my mind, that means that there are at least 45, 911 Facebook members who are a guilty as the King/Kahui family of sustaining that wall of silence around the deaths of these children.

Now let’s get some facts down-range…

No one has been convicted of any crime relating to the deaths of the twins. I have no doubt that someone should be convicted not just for the deaths but also for the neglect of the babies prior to their admission to Starship Hospital and for obstructing justice after their deaths.

It is a big step from 45, 911 morons ‘knowing’ that Macsyna King is directly responsible for the deaths of the twins i.e. she ‘did it’, to having the evidence to prove that beyond reasonable doubt in court. Last time I looked, the mob DIDN’t rule in this country…

While it is illegal for anyone in this country to profit directly from their offence e.g. by publishing a book on it (although Steven Anderson managed to get a couple of grand out of North and South for ‘his’ story on why it wasn’t his fault he killed six people in a shooting rampage in 1997 but N&S is hardly Newsweek…), it is not illegal for anyone, especially before any court proceedings are completed, to comment on that issue in any way they please, including blogs and books, especially if they do not promote or incite hate or violence (I note that Facebook doesn’t appear overly concerned about the threats and intimidatory statements and attacks on the Boycott the Macsyna King Book page).

Pressuring book retailers to not stock the book only reinforces the wall of silence obstructing any ongoing Police investigation of the deaths – yes, that’s right you, 45, 911 plonkers, you’re just as bad, if not worse because the height of your moral bandwagons would indicate that you know better, than the original Gang of Twelve family members that cowered behind their right to silence in 2006 and throughout the investigation.

PaperPlus and Warehouse need to grow a set and stock the book on their shelves lest they become as tainted as the Stoopid 45, 911 – this is a topic of national interest that deserved as much coverage from all quarters so that interest does not die like those babies.

The guy who claimed on RadioLive on Wednesday night, Chris-not-his-real-name, to have set up the page, also claims to have set up the Facebook page for the KFC DoubleDown burger (a work of art in my opinion – the burger not the FB page) that saw national stock of the DoubleDown burger run out in less than two days. This means that he is a. a spin doctor and/or b. a meddling dickhead who has no personal stake in this debate i.e he’s just doing it for shits and giggles. That he lacks the mortal courage to front up under his own name is a fairly good combat indicator to his own personality.

A lady rang RadioLive this afternoon and challenged all the 45, 911 pitchfork and torch crew to donate a small amount to Women’s Refuge or a similar organisation that stands against family violence – if they feel so strongly on this issue. Hey, guess, what? None of those organisations will see the slightest spike in their donations this month.

I don’t buy into or support Macsyna King’s lifestyle up to and possibly past the death of the twins – Ian Wishart says that she has now turned herself around – she has exactly the same right as anyone else in this country to state her case in any legal media she chooses to. She even has the same right to earn money stating her case if people are prepared to part with it. She has not been convicted of any crime, regardless of the 45, 911 loony-toons who just ‘know’that she is guilty – and who would be the first to bleat if their own civil liberties were attacked in this manner.

John Tamihere is playing fast and loose with the law when he incites people to buy a copy of the book, scan it and distribute it online…dumb-arse, going into detail on exactly how people should not do this is incitement…what a hypocrite as he bleated on yesterday about how Ian Wishart had employed equally dubious (but not illegal) journalistic tricks to secure an interview with him (“...but it was off the record...”) – can I call you a dumb-arse twice in the same paragraph?).

Will I buy the book? Probably not, I have no doubt that it will be sold somewhere because there is money involved but it’s not really the sort of book I buy and I’m also kinda ‘off’ buying books at the moment because a. I have such a massive backlog of stuff to read, b. Scale Model Expo is at the end of August and I need to focus, and c. I’m attracted to this EPUB format once local retailers stopping screwing us by selling e-books for the same price (but considerably reduced overheads) and normal hard copy books.

Will I read it if I come across a copy? Certainly I’ll have a browse and see where I go from there…

And a final parting shot to the 45, 911 – you all strike me as the sorts that need to be told things more than once before they sink – if this crime remains unsolved, you need to stand up and accept some responsibility for that…you are nothing more than the sad flotsam of the information age, what Paul Henry described on Tuesday afternoon (yes, he’s back!!) as “…those who are so desperate to be outraged…”

Be ashamed…

Strangelove has re-entered the Building

Posted on 3 June 2011 by SJPONeill

As a headline, this one that concludes the Time article According to new Pentagon cyber strategy, state-of-war conditions now exist between the US and China, was too good to pass up…coupled with this SECDEF quote that Michael Yon put up on Facebook a couple of hours ago, it looks like lunacy has well and truly returned…

Just got this from Office of SecDef

“Secretary Gates believes that for the United States, once committed to a NATO operation, to unilaterally abandon that mission would have enormous and dangerous long-term consequences.“

You think he might be talking about Libya? A campaign even more ill-advised than OIF? In all fairness, though, at least America had the courage and integrity to see OIF through as her allies and apparent friends slowly bailed on her…she had done the right thing in withdrawing her foot sharply from the (blood) bath of Libya as soon as it was apparent that NATO was getting the wibbles. That there will be ‘…enormous and dangerous long-term consequences…” is without a doubt but those consequences will be for NATO as it finds that it might have to ante up and see it’s own war through to a conclusion without a US safety net…yesterday I heard for the first time the phrase ‘...NATO’s Vietnam...’

I agree with the theme of the Time article that MAD actually = sanity in that it essentially rendered the irretrievable impossible – so long as we kept Peter Sellers out of the White House…As the Cold War staggered to a close in the 80s, Ronald Reagan declared a policy based on ‘you can run, but you can not hide‘ and indeed authorised and conducted a number of kinetic actions against those he perceived had crossed the line in the sand…

Those however were all kinetic actions against specific kinetic targets to send very specific messages…what targets might a kinetic strike against Chinese cyber-warriors hit…a server in downtown Shanghai or Beijing? The same fibre link that carries the world’s communications and commercial traffic? Some geeky buck-toothed nerd who needs a bath and some dress sense?

One of the biggest and most-frequently stated concerns at the Irregular Warfare Summit here last week was that the takedown of OBL and the (so far) successful drawdown from Iraq is leading to a growing sense of relief at senior levels that the aberration of COIN is over and ‘…now we can get back to real war...’ This ‘real war’ dogma seems to be set in the minds of those who just missed Vietnam and spent the larger part of their careers preparing for World War III – which, if anyone was paying attention, never happened.

Thus, possibly more by circumstance, the leaders in the ‘new war’ (which is really an old war) are those who were on the ground in Iraq when the pendulum was shoved all the way from clean surgical shock and awe to dirty messy complexity and irregularity…names like Petraeus, Mattis, Chiarelli, Casey…to name a few. It’s no accident these names are all from the land forces because this new war, at the moment, is very much land-centric (sorry, air power guys) because that is where the people are…and while I am noted as not being a uber-proponent of population-centric warfare, this war is one between beliefs which live amongst the people and not platforms which can be anywhere…

Cyberwar is much the same…there are no clearly-distinguishable platforms at which to strike: it is a game of skill and knowledge not fixed to key infrastructure or platforms,,,that guy next to you on the bus, playing with his iPhone could be a node in the attack network…the ‘enemy’ doesn’t even need to be in their own country which leads to thoughts of retaliation for spoofed cyberattacks against countries that only appeared to be guilty – how many times can a cruise missile accidentally hit the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade…?

Cyberwar is elusive, diffuse and evasive…it’s another facet of complexity and irregularity, warfare conducted by ‘the people’…releasing the kinetic dogs of war on it will achieve no more than ‘shock and awe’ did in Iraq…like any other operating environment, this one will only be conquered by those who get their (cyber)boots dirty and adapt to it…in the mean time we need to THINK a lot more before we commit ourselves to careless policies promising kinetic attack against cyber-strike…regardless of how many cruise missiles and JDAMs might be nearly their ‘use by’ date…

As David Hoffman concludes in The cyber arms race:

The offensive cyber battlefield promises to be far more chaotic than in the nuclear arms race, with many smaller players and non-state actors, and the risks of retaliation against the United States might be quite high. We need good defenses, no question. But should we be fighting back with cyber warheads and real missiles? Are we ready for what could follow? Is there an alternative?

The Odyssey…

Posted on 1 June 2011 by SJPONeill

(c) The World According To Me 2011 — USS New Jersey (one of the last) from USS Olympia (one of the first).

Yes…the blog has been quite quiet of late…I’ve been on the road for the last fortnight and it has been both stimulating and challenging…a normal day consists of participating in the day’s activities, any after dinner networking and then spending a few hours logged-in on Kiwi time to keep up with events back home…doesn’t leave much time for scintillating insightful blog entries…

Still I have learned a lot in my various engagements since I arrived in Las Vegas two and bit weeks ago…I was last in Vegas in 1988, young and single, and it rocked!! Vegas when you’re married and a grandad and on your own after the rest of the team depart, ain’t much fun at all and is kinda boring…is that really boring, or just an opportunity for introspection and consolidation…? From Nevada, I arrived at Reagan International at some awful hour but got to the Marriott in time to catch Josh for a couple (or more!!) of beers before the Irregular Warfare Summit…

So…bubbling away in my mind are a number of insights relating to Unmanned Systems (sorry, ladies, the name ain’t changing anytime soon!) and Irregular Warfare – again the name ain’t changing anytime soon…yes, there are also irregular challenges, activities and threats and yes, we’d really like to intervene before irregularity becomes warfare…but let’s just go with the flow on this one. At least, it’s a big step up from the COINology that pervaded all aspects since 2004…and, sure, the official definition (a la DoD) will catch up…and no, the operators seem to be copying off the same sheet of music…not sure what language some of them might be scribing in but we’re getting there…

In the meantime, I am churning away…I try to maintain SA through FB mainly, supported by email although correspondents will have noticed that response might be a bit tardy (lax) at times…Skype’s handy too but it parasitically consumes bandwidth and that’s not good when I’m on a data cap (hotels with free wireless rock!!). One coup from this trip is that I bought a VirginMobile USB modem which has been a Godsend for mobile connectivity – a few more hotels charging USD12-15 a night for wireless access and it will have paid for itself AND the first months net access…The VirginMobile deal is far better than that offered by Cricket or T-Mobile and I really recommend it….

Last weekend, I caught the Amtrak to Philadelphia for bilateral discussions with Dean @ Travels with Shiloh on divvying up the world post-world domination day…I chose the USS New Jersey (tied up across the Delaware in Camden) as the venue as I figured that all that steel would cramp Doc Karma…ooops, I mean, Dean’s mind control powers…probably just as well that I did as he was showing off his power of mind-reading at lunch…you know, that thing super-villains do to show-off…”oh, I might just have…the thing in the menu you’re looking at – now!‘ Talks went well so look out world!

Honestly, it was a great day for a range of reasons…firstly, when you travel as much as I do, it’s always nice to be met on arrival – and not by a hoard of shovel-toting molemen (Dean, are you sure they didn’t follow you?!); secondly, I had no idea how to get from 30th Street Station to my hotel; and it was great to meet in person someone whose work I have admired and followed for a number of years…it was also well into summer, an awesome hot sunny day, a boat ride across the river…Philly cheesesteak for dinner…how could you go wrong…?

So more of the next few days of my adventures…and I’ll start to blend in some commentary on current events and my discoveries while here…

Joining the dots…

Posted on 21 May 2011 by SJPONeill

Obviously air power has a most important role to play in combating an irregular force.
The purpose of this seminar is to ask you how you would consider employing air power in
such capacity. Not an easy question!

QUESTION
How would you consider employing Air Power in combating an irregular Force?

I would use air power to sense, move and engage..

I was really disappointed in this week’s seminar, especially since it’s closely related to the topic of my current research trip where I have been spending a lot of time with people who deal with the irregular environment every day and have done for years.

I’d also consider asking some questions that better explore the issues and challenges that air power faces in the irregular environment, and not limit it solely to irregular warfare i.e. explore the USMC concept of irregular threats or even better the UK one of irregular activity, against which air power is employed on a close to daily basis. I’d also find some readings that explore these issues and that are not simply regurgitated products from the school. There are ample writings available in the international IW community that would led to some good robust discussion (unfortunately only in a virtual forum) to peel back these issues and apply them to a national or regional context…

That might seem a bit harsh but it’s not because the time I can spare at the moment is around midnight…this seminar comes across as a last-minute bolt-on without much thought or preparation…a deviation from the path of true and pure i.e. real air power i.e. MCO. It should probably be one of the more important topics of the course that might lead into a module on ‘What Future For Air Power?’….some ideas for what could have been…

Two air forces: MCO and COIN? or a single air force for MCO and let partners handle COIN/IW…? Should we just toss COIN/IW into the SO box?

The advent of unmanned and now autonomous UAS.

How might we handle the proliferation of miniature (and smaller) UAS which are the greater threat to manned aircraft?

What are the challenges of ISR and strike in an IW coalition?

Are the days of MCO over?

Is there a place for air power in war amongst the people?

What happens when the ‘other guy’ gets UAS?

Will cyberwar replace or supplement traditional air power roles and functions? Should cyber even be an air role?

Is the current IW focus on PGM an ‘a’ war or ‘the’ war lesson?

What effects might events like wikileaks have on air power? Or do they have an effect at all – maybe we just tend to over-classify anyway…?

What effects might current outsourcing/contracting philosophies have upon air power in an IW environment?

As ISR collection capabilities expand exponentially, what changes might we need to make to ensure that air forces can optimise the terabytes of information now available – will we need a larger analysis ‘tail’ to support a shrinking number of teeth?

Do the OBL raid, Op BARRAS, and ISAF cross-border drone strikes lead towards an era where more smaller (possibly unilateral) cross-border incursions more more common as a tool of National power?

Colour Me Devastated

Posted on 3 May 2011 by SJPONeill

…in regard to the closure of the file on the late and unlamented OBL…

Ronald Reagan warned bad guys that they could “…run but not hide…” and George W. Bush undertook that the perpetrators of 911 and those who supported them would be hunted down…no matter where they go or how long it takes…good on Uncle Sam for being true to his word…

I’m more concerned with the issues surrounding disposal of the body…without some irrefutable proof of death the legend of OBL will live on…how long will it be before the first reports of OBL and Elvis bare-backing riding the Loch Ness Monster…? But, either way, a clear message, a reminder, has been sent out, serving notice that bad guys are not untouchable and certainly not safe in their refuges…just the intel haul just from seized computer hardware will have hard drives spinning at Langley and Fort Meade for months…and what terrorists will not have an enhanced pucker factor (EPF) when helicopters fly overhead for the next few weeks..?

I was driving through the Volcanic Plateau when Radio Live stopped for the live feed of the President’s address. I was a bit miffed that I hadn’t any advance notice of the announcement as it was leaked on the net just as I left home – this detracted from the full effect of the news…reception was broken through Erua and I was reminded of, many years ago, being in the jungle trying to tune into BBC News on a little handheld transistor.

I had to pull off the road when I found a clear reception window to listen to the announcement…as the story unfolded, I had two mental images: one of the sirens on the destroyers as they steamed untouched through the Navarone Channel; and the other of the slow drum roll at the end of The Sands of Iwo Jima before the gentle strains of The Marine Hymn…sounds of quiet triumph, a job well done…

And, I have to say, I was happy that this chapter in the war was done the old-fashioned way, boots on the ground, and not with an anonymous JDAM through the bedroom window.

You can run but you can not hide…

Bad guys, take note…