Irregular?

...and then the big Aussie Union wizards got grumpy with The Hobbit...

…and then the big Aussie Union wizards got grumpy with The Hobbit…

Irregular?” might be the opening line of a laxative advertisement and I have to admit that this issue of Aussie unions being allowed to muscle in on a New Zealand company producing a movie in New Zealand has about the same effect on me as a good laxative…

Regardless of whether Peter Jackson pays union rates that the Australian and US unions are happy with, this is a New Zealand domestic matter to be resolved and not the business of a couple of overseas unions that have probably done more to skittle the movie business over the decades than movie pirates.  the crux of the matter, as summarised by the Dominion Post this morning, relates to conditions of work:

If film crews were hired as employees, with a contractual promise of ongoing employment, there would be no film industry, he said. “It’s an industry built on short-term work opportunities, with a finite time limit.”

Many contractors preferred being independent contractors – they were paid more, had more breaks, could claim back on expenses, and could also leave with short notice.

He would not be meeting unions because all contract negotiations were being handled by Warner Bros.

New Zealand Film and Video Technicians’ Guild president Alun Bollinger said film workers could be fired on a whim and only one week’s notice was needed to be given by either party.

In other countries, including Australia, film workers were usually employed as employees with full workers’ rights, though they were still only employed for the duration of each movie.

At first glance, a storm in a teacup, this offshore meddling in national affairs has already cost the New Zealand film industry the Halo production, although this did free up resources for the outstanding District 9, and now risks the production of The Hobbit in New Zealand. If not filmed in New Zealand, the movie will probably head off to Eastern Europe somewhere, probably where those large meddling unions have no sway – or where incomes are so low that meeting daily rate requirements under a union contract won’t be a major drain on studio resources.

As an example of irregular activity threatening national interests, should the Government get involved? Absolutely!! Not because some Aussie whiners says so but because this issue does highlight some apparent inconsistencies in current labour laws regarding the status of employees as employees or contractors and this does need to be resolved. Whether or not it will be resolved by the Government that brought in the 90 day fire-at-will labour law ‘reform’ is another question…

Having been involved on the periphery of production of the Lord of the Rings trilogy 1999-2003,  and seen first-hand the positive effects that this production had on the growth of the NZ film production industry, it would be a real shame to see us take one big step backwards…but this is an issue that needs to be resolved by Kiwis…

The Information (R)evolution

I’ve been marking papers for the last week or so, some good, some indifferent and a couple, well, you know…I handed the last lot back on Friday and, on my way out of the office on Friday, tossed the September issue on C4ISR Journal in my bag to snap my mind back into reading structured material by people who at least know how to write…

I haven’t been disappointed in the content in this issue, although it has made me long somewhat for the free time to be able to read more if not ALL of the journals that we receive each month…the title of this thread comes from the editorial in this month’s issue…Keep the revolution on course…

In this item, editor Ben Ianotta, applauds the US Army’s initiative to adopt commercial ‘smart’ phones as means of distributing and sharing (they ARE two different functions) information to troops on the ground. The idea came from Army Vice-Chief Peter Chiarelli last year “Give troops the same power over information enjoyed by the average commercial iPhone user.” While I’m sure that Apple enjoyed the iPhone plug, it will have to move fast if it wants any significant share of this initiative. Already competitors using competitive operating systems like Google’s Android are hitting the streets and at considerably LESS cost than iProducts. Apple, I think, seems to have a habit of misjudging the market and relying on customer loyalty for expensive products that offer LESS interoperability for vague and illusory benefits.

Much like, perhaps, some military product developers…who have still not figured out that, since the end of the Cold War, primacy in technological development has reversed from military R&D leaders to the commercial sector…that it has taken two decades from the turning point for the Army to accept distributing commercial communication devices to soldiers as something that it MUST do is mildly disturbing and also somewhat ironic in that the information-based revolution in military affairs, the long-vaunted RMA, focussed on massive bloated central information systems that never really delivered. In the meantime, there was this thing called the internet…

Another change heralded by this programme is a long overdue acceptance that classifying any and all information relating to operations does NOT have to be classified up the wazoo, and even less so if you actually want it to get to those who need it…what was that definition of knowledge management, sorry…information management…that we use…

…the right information…

…to the right people…

…at the right time…

…AND ensuring that they know what to do with it…?

Of course, this does NOT mean that everything should be tossed on the intranet and levels of classification done away with – although it would be an interesting experiment post-Wikileaks to see if the sudden flood of information could ever be processed by an adversary fast enough to act decisively on it.

On page 12 of this issue, there’s a short item on a mobile 3G network access system known as MONAX that would allow soldiers to access information with less reliance on commercial cellular systems. MONAX base stations “…could be positioned as fixed mast antennas on the ground, on vehicles, or in airborne assets such as aerostats, C-130 transport aircraft or – potentially – unmanned planes…” immediately below this item, is another on a Google Android-based wearable computer known as Tactical Ground Reporting or TIGR. It’s intended to facilitate situational awareness for individual soldiers and although currently designed to work over a tactical radio network, Android is designed for smart phone connectivity so it’s probably not too hard to join the dots here.

And speaking of joining the dots, page 8 reports on the first flight of the AeroVironment Global Observer. Weighing in it less than 10,000lbs but with a wingspan of 175 feet and a payload of 380lbs, the Global Observer is intended to fly at 65,000 feet for 160+ hours (that’s over a week!) for customers who might range from weather services to cell phone companies and others that need persistent coverage over an area.

More and more commercial off-the-shelf is the way to go, simply to get something out there now, instead of tediously slow, often bloated and inefficient, development projects…

The cover article starting on page 16 advises that Global Hawk will probably NOT be able to meet the current target date of 2013 to replace the venerable U-2 for high altitude long-range surveillance and reconnaissance. The problem is not so much that there is anything wrong with Global Hawk except it was never designed to replace the U-2 and thus has not been integrated with a number of the key collection systems employed by the U-2. This all dates back to a 2005 directive by the Rumsfeld administration in the US DoD to retire a number of older aircraft types including the U-2 and hammered home in 2007 with Rumsfeld’s certification that the U-2 was “…no longer needed to cover intelligence gaps…” I wonder which of that administration’s cronies might have stood to gain the most from contracts for a fleet of new S&R platforms..?

Unfortunately there is no even any agreement that Global hawk is a suitable replacement for the U-2…another go-round of the efficiency (cheaper) versus effectiveness (does the job) argument in which the chair polishing advocates of efficiency still demonstrate that they simply do not get that people are actually useful…SKYNET has nothing on some of these drones in diminishing the value of the human component of military, and thus national, power…

Woman to woman

MG Michael Flynn, 2Lt Roxanne Bras

I’m a little cynical about this next item, leading off on page 34, written by MG Michael Flynn, of Fixing Intel fame/notoriety (I thought it was both very good and long overdue but many consider otherwise) and 2Lt Roxanne Bras on the value of Female Engagement Teams (FETs). The one question that kept coming back to me as I read and then re-read this article was ‘What do FETs really do?’ Don’t get me wrong…I’m sold on the concept as it’s one that was used to considerable good effect during the six year BEL ISI mission on Bougainville (giving the lie to the description in the article of FETs as “…the newest tool to emerge from battlefield innovation…”) and was also described as a key enabler in a recent brief here by a visiting UK psyops practitioner.

My first concern with this paper is that it feels like ‘spin’ – maybe I’m just a bit too set in my ways but I’m having trouble understanding why a two-star general and a junior officer would need to collaborate on a two page article (two and a half if you include the pictures) – paper? Yes perhaps. A book, definitely but this just doesn’t feel right or genuine. Perhaps a better approach would have been to have write the paper and the other provide comment from their own perspective? I always remember an instructor at Tac School who hammered into us the concept of ‘task with a purpose’ – what is something there to do. Reading this article, I wonder what the intent of the author’s is. Clearly there has been some resistance to the FET concept but I’m not sure that this article is going to help any…

The FETs are described as key to gathering information within Afghan village culture but are specifically excluded from collecting intelligence. This implies that there is some distinction between intelligence and information but surely ANY information on adversaries and competitors (once known as the enemy), the weather and terrain (physical, human, informational, whatever) might fall under the heading of intelligence…? And surely, by mere virtue of engaging Afghan women in conversation, FETs will be gathering elements of actionable information be it actionable in training, targeting, situational awareness, etc, etc…

The article even goes so far to distinguish between FETs and Human Terrain Teams which also gather information on social and cultural terrain on the grounds that “…FETs have not been trained in information gathering and they do not know how to vet the information they gather…” Huh? So a FET is not trained to vet information that it is not trained to gather but which is the primary raison d’etre for its existence in the first place i.e. “…the FET can provide valuable information to the commander…”. Moreover while FETs are (quite rightly) not “…working to change Afghan culture and ‘liberate’ the women…”, they “…are a strategic asset…” and  “…should be applied using the very same inkblot strategy applied to [the] wider COIN strategy…” However the inkblot in COIN is indicative of spreading change, typically in growing (hopefully) support for the government and security forces…so what FET-inspired effect will be inkblotted across Afghanistan?

I’m sorry but as much as I think MG Flynn hit the nail fair on the head with Fixing Intel at the beginning of the year, in this case, I think he would have achieved more stepping back and allowing 2Lt Bras to promote the case for FETs based on her own experiences than with this top-level ‘spin’.

Shifting Terrain

Enter a caption

Following immediately on from the FET article is a rather superficial one criticising both Flynn’s Fixing Intel and the human terrain concept by “…US Army experts Paul Meinshausen and Schaun Wheeler…” In arguing that “…information about the human terrain is not the information that decision makers need to be able to work with local populations or defeat insurgencies…” They argue (weakly) that “…more important than data…is an understanding of the influences that drive behaviour…

As near as I can figure, their concept is that physical terrain and, more broadly, the physical environment is the key factor that affects a population and if we understand that environment, we can not only understand but influence the population. “The US and its allies need to let go of the assumption that conventional operations are somehow fundamentally different from counterinsurgent operations and consider the possibility that the population is just another group of people that adapts to its terrain just like any other friendly, neutral or enemy…” Ya think? Is that the arrogant ill-informed assumption that the flawed shock and awe doctrine was based on; the same doctrine that proved so bloodily ineffective in the first three years in Iraq ? Are these two “…experts…” really trying to say that it’s that simple, that all the work in the last five years on the shift from platform-based to individual-based warfare was just wrong and we had it right all along? Give me a break, please…

Nowhere in this article do the authors actually define where such understanding might come from, more so in the absence on what they claim is worthless ‘data’. I wonder if they might stop to think one night about the simple concept that perhaps understanding might be based upon analysis of lots and lots of bits of data and the application of that data against the context of the local environment. While dismissing the means by which we learn about cultures, including the old chestnut about anthropologists specifically criticising the human terrain system programme (in reality only a very small proportion of very vocal anthropologists have done so – the remainder seem happy to go about their anthropological business), they tell us that we need to learn about those same cultures in order to be able achieve our objectives in Afghanistan.

In the last paragraph before the ‘The Human Terrain Fallacy’ heading, the article states that an abundance of information on Afghanistan already exists from a vast range of non-military sources. This is absolutely correct but it is false to say this removes any requirement for the intelligence community to collect its own information. If anything the real problem that the authors allude to but never pin down in this article is that the problem is not in the collection but in the processing and analysis of this data, as both individual data sets and/or as a collated fused national data set. That the authors don’t ‘get’ this is clear when they follow on to declare a finding (in isolation) like “Dispute resolution must remain adaptive and flexible to setbacks and changes” as “…uselessly vague…”. As a statement on its own, this does seem like a statement of the blindingly obvious but then so do many other doctrinal statement – which is probably why they are espoused in doctrine in the first place. Examining that “uselessly vague” finding through a doctrinal lens, one might expect the context from which it has been ripped to include:

Examples of how dispute resolution processes have been applied with varying degrees of success.

A description of how that finding was derived.

Some distilled best practice guidelines, tips and techniques to assist the practitioner in getting it right.

Having spent a decade or so in the lessons learned game, some many clear and distinct observations and issues are ultimately distilled into similarly “uselessly vague” lessons which then form the basis of doctrinal change and evolution. Nowhere has this been more or better validated than through the ABCA Coalition Lessons Analysis Workshop (CLAW) process which was first implemented in 2005 and is now a key driver in ABCA processes.

This paper actually (painfully) reminds me of some of the less sharp papers I have graded in the last week or so. Instead of tasking itself with a clear purpose, it has the feel of a couple of first-year students more focused on being clever and impressing the staff with their brilliance…or what we call IntCorps-itis: always searching for the crucial piece of intelligence that will win the war instead of focusing on simply delivering good solid intelligence product…

I note that on Page 42, C4ISR itself awards this article a red ‘DANGER’ comment in its Attitude Check column and I wonder if someone else cancelled and this was all the C4ISR staff could find to fill the gap…it’s an article that’s not just immature but outright wrong and which would struggle to get an ‘F’ for ‘Fantastic’ on the marking scale….

In other news (in this issue)

There’s also some interesting updates on semi-autonomous EOD robots, iris scanning biometrics, the Blue Heron airborne multi-spectral imager and US Cyber Command and its challenges and opportunities.

On the R&R front…

A slow day today, just taking advantage of it being the weekend to catch up on some work  – I’ve been feeling a bit under the weather this week so haven’t gone home for the weekend and have stayed on base to just have a quiet weekend without the 600+ km round trip home…I also don’t really want to drive the little red car too much until the ding I put in it during the snow storm on Wednesday morning is repaired – well, actually, I didn’t ding it…there was this old guy, see, who jammed on his brakes on the snow and slid across the centreline – all I did was broadside trying to get out of his way and he smacked, tapped actually into the rear panel between the passenger door and the rear wheel – fortunately only pushing the panel in and not inflicting any sort of mobility kill: an MX-5 is the last thing I’d be wanting to shelter in waiting for the snow to clear and the towie to arrive…I have pictures but they are stuck on the camera as I left the (cursed proprietary!!!) cable at home…

Leon Scott Kennedy from Resident Evil

Saw this picture on Paper Modelers this morning: a pretty good effort, I thought, considering that it is, of course, ‘only’ constructed from folded and curved paper.

Also, in ‘tidying’ the study on Tuesday, I found the manual for the big Dora which has been hiding for a couple of years…this means that this monster should rise somewhat on the production schedule over the next few months…

It’s a monster!

After a number of (dis)organisational issues i.e. I needed to get my act together and arrive on base with both model parts AND tools, I have made some progress on my upscaling of the Modelik Udarnyj…this is start #3 after the first two attempts aborted after I found that I had made some serious error s in the upscaling conversion process…anyway, now back on track and this is my on-base project when I am away from home…it’s working out to be a little bigger than expected as seen by the CD case for size comparison…the parts here are just sitting in place hence the slightly out-of-kilter appearance…

First hull formers

It was Carmen’s birthday the other weekend and one of the things that she got from the kids was the Ultimate (with the two pistols) version of House of the Dead for Wii – we both miss not be able to use the Xbox guns on the plasma TV so this brought this capability back – we both really like the Wii because a. you have to get up off your butt to play and b. you don’t have to be a competent thumb twiddler to play as you must with Xbox and Playstation…

A bit of a disappointment…

While blasting away at the screen is a ton of fun, the game itself is a bit of the disappointment…the video cutscenes that players are forced to endured are not only poorly rendered and constructed but the add nothing to game play and are riddled with bad language…so I’m now on the hunt for a better (which wouldn’t be hard) Wii shooter…I did see Marines Urban Combat on the shelf in JB Hifi the other day but we’ve got enough hand cannons now so just want the game on its own….

9-6 The under-dog bites…

Jamie Hellur of Auckland tries to make a break during the round nine ITM Cup match between Southland and Auckland. Photo / Getty Images

 It’s always good to see an underdog holds it own, better when it not only thrashes one of the most affluent clubs but gets to retain THE Shield, and better when the trounced club is Auckland…of course, this will mean zip to overseas readers (imagine the SuperBowl but maybe played for 4-5 times a season) but as one who was a temporary Southlander in the early 80s and was there when they clawed their way in the First Division, Southland’s retention of the Shield is a great achievement…a massive morale spike in our southernmost province that can only be a good thing…

Opportunities Lost

‘Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work.’ – Thomas A. Edison.

Conversely, some opportunities are seized because they appear easy and not really like work at all. I’ve just watched an item on the midday TV News covering the handover of the town of Sangin in Helmand Province from Royal Marines to US Marines. Approximately one-third all all British combat casualties in Afghanistan have been in and around Sangin…

The British “have decided, given limited resources, to focus on the central part of the province” and leave the hot spots of northern Helmand to the U.S., says Col. Paul Kennedy, commander of U.S. Marine forces in the area.

The true test will come over the next two months, when the last Royal Marines leave Sangin to the U.S. Marines. Right now, the Americans just have to fight; they don’t have to manage relations with the local Afghan government, navigate tribal politics or promote economic growth.

Once the Royal Marines are gone, those jobs will fall to the U.S. Marines.

Going into Afghanistan in 2001 probably looked like an easy win for the Blair Government in Great Britain and a far easier ‘sell’ than Iraq in 2003. I heard Tony Blair in a TV interview here a couple of weeks ago and all the problems in Iraq and Afghanistan were someone else’s fault…largely Al-Qaeda in Iraq and Iran in Afghanistan…without their meddling, one got the impression that Messrs Blair and Bush (Jnr) would have triumphed in both campaigns…

The simple fact is that with intervention comes responsibility and, whatever else people might think or say about the US, it is doing its level best to uphold its end of the stick – in stark contrast to its former ally that bailed in Iraq – from the relative back water of Basra and is now starting to slither away in Afghanistan…335 casualties (so far) and for what? The UK Government does a disservice to every soldier who served by failing to step up to the plate and accept responsibility for its actions

While the UK bleats about being undermanned in Helmand, it continues to slash back its military forces in all three services with all the enthusiasm and passion of Freddy Krueger or Jason from Friday the 13th…in the final analysis, I guess that Britain finally decided that it was only ‘in’ war and not ‘at’ war after all…

Soon they all be getting back on the helos...

In or at: that is the question

I recollected that her eye excelled in brightness, that of any other animal, and that she has no eye-lids—She may therefore be esteemed an emblem of vigilance.—She never begins an attack, nor, when once engaged, ever surrenders: She is therefore an emblem of magnanimity and true courage.—As if anxious to prevent all pretensions of quarreling with her, the weapons with which nature has furnished her, she conceals in the roof of her mouth, so that, to those who are unacquainted with her, she appears to be a most defenseless animal; and even when those weapons are shewn and extended for her defense, they appear weak and contemptible; but their wounds however small, are decisive and fatal:—Conscious of this, she never wounds till she has generously given notice, even to her enemy, and cautioned him against the danger of treading on her.—Was I wrong, Sir, in thinking this a strong picture of the temper and conduct of America? ~ Ben Franklin

Since returning to the work force on a semi-fulltime basis, I have been somewhat remiss in monitoring on those sites I’ve added to my blogroll over time…this morning, in response to an item on the Small Wars Journal Blog on 4GW/5GW, I wanted to link to the work that Peter had done his The Strategist blog on a Cohorts of War model that was considerably more robust than William Lind’s flawed 4GW construct. I knew that Peter had stopped contributing to The Strategist when he departed for Vanuatu a couple of month s ago but I was surprised to find that I couldn’t get into it at all this morning (hopefully a minor glitch relating more to the server firewall at this end and not to any issues with Peter’s old blog).

Anyway, since the intention was there to revisit members of the blog roll, I continued to do so…Neptunus Lex has an interesting item on the symbolism of flags, It’s Been A Long Time, in which he describes the history of the First Jack, the first flag under which the US Navy fought in the War of Independence and one which was reinstated post-911.  He recounts Benjamin Franklin’s word on the reason behind the snake on the flag ..post-911, Don’t Tread On Me, was an apt banner under which to go to war…and he concludes with the thought that “…It’s been a long time, but we are still at war. Outside my house the Jack is still flying...”

Lex’s statement “…we are still at war…” is interesting. I don’t think there is any doubt that most Americans see their nation as at war and when you’re at war, you behave a certain way. I still remember the day of 911, of waking for breakfast in the Mess at Waiouru to learn of a terrorist attack in America and not thinking too much of it until I turned on the TV just in time to see the first tower come down. The school I was working at had an instructor who’d just completed the staff course at Ft Leavenworth…he spoke of how this was another Pearl Harbor Day, where the America that was so concerned about casualties in peace support/OOTW like Bosnia and Somali and of being perceived as playing by international rules, would shift to a war-fighting stance and leave no stone unturned in its hunt for those responsible and those who supported or abetted them. Thus, then, an America at war will bear the  ‘blood and treasure’ cost of that war and stay the course to see it through to a conclusion.

What then of those nations that might only be in a war…this is a question that came up when I was lecturing at Massey University a couple of weeks ago and led into an interesting discussion…the bottom line was that a nation in war can opt out at any stage when it convinces itself that its national objectives have been met, are no longer being achieved or even when it simply can’t remember why it got involved in the first place. On the other hand, a nation at war has a greater commitment to seeing matters through to a conclusion, regardless of cost – or certainly where the cost is a lesser concern than resolution of the issue.

But in 21st Century informal war, even resolution of the issue becomes blurred – once upon a time, a war was ‘resolved’ when the opponent was defeated and the victors occupied their territory – how now (brown cow?) do we define victory when our opponents don’t actually occupy any ground worth seizing and the nation’s capital is already occupied by our (apparent) friends and allies. The phrase that always comes to my mind when I think of this is from that great military theorist, Princess Leia Organa “When you broke in here, did you have a plane for getting out?” Defining the conditions for victory can be tricky: Phase One of WW2 was all about restoring Polish sovereignty but, despite occupying Berlin in 1945 we didn’t actually achieve this until 1989 – and then without occupying Moscow…In Iraq (version 2 anyway), it was a relatively simple task to define, although somewhat bloodier and more expensive to achieve, but then Iraq had been a centrally-governed society before March 20 2003.

Afghanistan is a whole different ball game and we now see the coalition start to wobble as some nations simply pack their bags and leave, although doing it to the tune of The Animals’ We’ve Got To get Out Of This Place instead of Het Wilhelmus was probably a bit tacky….while others discover that amazingly, they are now actually closer to achieving their in-theatre endstates that they had realised and thus can commence transition to a steady state Afghan-led structure…and recently we have seen the resurgence of statistics ‘proving’ how well that transition programme is going, especially the training of the Afghan National Police and Army but numbers aren’t everything. In fact, in this arena, they may be meaningless, certainly without some form of qualitative measures to accompany them…some interesting viewpoints on endstates here:

Kiwi-soldier-killed—full-interview-with-Louis-Gardiner

Tomgram: Body Count Nation

The other enemy

What does the Military Endstate in Bamiyan look like?

One of the things that those who might only be in war should remember, and one which may drive those at war, is that by opting to intervene or interfere in someone else’s country, they accept a certain responsibility for their actions. As those in war nations slowly slip away, they should remember that the people of those countries have no such option to just walk away and that the last helicopter off the Embassy roof always leaves someone behind…

In other news

John Birmingham seeks new ideas to develop the America-less post-Wave environment…the way things are developing in the latest thread on this topic, the rest of the world will write itself off in petty score-settling and an almost vacant America will reassert itself by default…

The Lite version of the UK’s Joint CombatOperations Virtual Environment (JCOVE) simulation based on Bohemia’s uber-successful Virtual Battlefield System 2 is availbale for download (and has been for some time but I only just found it) through the JCOVE Lite forum – yes, you do have to register and then you do have to post a welcome post to a thread before the download link activates but it is well worth it…VBS2 is the de facto standard simulation across the Anglospheric nations, well, the land forces anyway and is a superior tool for SOP and TTP development, AO familiarisation and mission rehearsal and well worth a look from anyone in the training or capability development arena….

On irregularity

We’ve had a bit of a beating in this little nation down-under in the last week or so…more speed wobbles than one might reasonably expect in a year…I’ve mentioned on a number of occasions how the UK phrase Countering Irregular Activity offers a more relevant construct for current and near-future periods of uncertainty and complexity than either the Marines’ Countering Irregular Threats or the overly-simplistic and over-used COIN. Who would have thought that in the space of a week we might experience four significant irregular and potentially destabilising events of such magnitude? It was only on Friday night that I was down at the local, discussing this item and observing that whether it would remain an issue into the next week would very much depend on what happened over the weekend – normally here, that means we either get or dish out a thumping on one sports field or another…

At around 4-30am on Saturday morning, our second largest city, Christchurch in the South Island was severely shaken by a 7.2 Richter earthquake centred some 30km west of the city. This area is not generally noted as a high-risk for earthquakes, more common problems being occasional seasonal snow, flooding and smog. As a result, people were not as physically nor psychologically prepared as they might have been in other areas. This is the most powerful earthquake ever recorded here and, although no lives were lost, the final repair bill will be in the billions and a number of heritage buildings will have to be demolished due to irreparable damage.

Deans Homestead (c) NZ Herald

This image is one of a series taken during an early scientific survey of the fault line area (the Youtube file of the overflight is linked through the image). To give an idea of the lateral and vertical ground movement during the main quake, the lateral shift in this image is around four metres, and vertically around 1.5 metres. Only a tenth of that degree of movement would be a nasty jolt! This image was sent to us as an example of some of the underlying issues that might have to be resolved in the wake of the quakes (after shocks up to 5.2 Richter are still rolling in, on top of the obvious tasks of rebuilding and reinforcing,  in terms of changes to boundaries and potentially ownership, to say nothing of the requirement to update every digital and hard copy map of the region. It’s resolving this little issues that may be the bigger long term problem…

Exploring new boundaries (c) geonet.org.nz 2010

While Canterbury was coming to grips with its devastated major city, the lower North Island braced itself against a series of floods that swept through a number of small towns, further stretching Civil Defence and infrastructure agencies that were already focussed on deploying aid south. We got lucky and the front that dumped all this rain hit everywhere BUT Canterbury sparing Christchurch from further damage from rising water levels.

The Mangatainoka river in flood, with the old Tui Brewery building in the background.

At 1-30pm on Saturday, a light aircraft conducting skydiving operations at Fox Glacier on the other side of the South Island, crashed on take-off killing all nine occupants: the pilot,  four divers-master;  and four tourists from Ireland, England, Germany and Australia. This is the worst air disaster in national history in decades, the worst being the 1963 DC-3 crash in the Kaimai Ranges that killed 23. Any other weekend, such a tragedy would bring to nation to a halt but against the backdrop of the Canterbury earthquake it didn’t even get to lead the 6 O’clock News.

Skydive aircrash kills nine (c) TVNZ 2010

Earlier last week, the Government announced a NZ$1.7billion bail-out for the crumbling South Canterbury Finance (SCF) empire…although some had protested that the Government’s approach was heavy-handed and had helped causer the problem.I think that the simple truth is that it has acted responsibly to prevent the loss of people’s saving due to the doddering of an aging business magnate. I recall not so long ago seeing SCF advertising 8-8.5% interest rates on 18 month investments. At the time, I (rather naively) thought this must be a sign of recovery for this company but of course it wasn’t…it was a last gasp grab for cash flow to bail it out of its current problem – by creating another one 18 months out…I have to admit only a small degree of sympathy for investors who fail to apply the ‘Is it too good to be true?’ rigor test to such proposals and who then get bailed out by the government. The national cost per capita of this bail-out is $372 each so South Canterbury, please note, i don’t expect to be buying too many beers next time I pass through…mine’ll be a Tui…!

The cost (c) TVNZ

And it goes on…there has been for some time, concern over how much of the country is being bought up by offshore investors and what the potential risks are if we opt for short-term gain without really considering long-term pain…a Chinese consortium has offered to buy a large number of dairy farms, ostensibly as part of a move to introduce high-quality dairy products to the Chinese domestic market. I had no idea that cows couldn’t grow in China or that our national output of dairy produce would be anymore than a drop in the milk bucket of China’s internal market’s…and I do wonder if anyone has actually wargamed what the impact might be on domestic dairy markets if the new owners (if approved by Government) perhaps decide to move cease dairy production on that land…already Fonterra milk product exports have linked domestic dairy prices to overseas prices with the result that the price of milk and cheese has effectively doubled – it IS actually cheaper to feed your children Coke than milk so watch for the destabilising effects of declining dental health on future Government health budgets – or will it just be easier and more pragmatic to swap out your natural teeth for some nice handmade wooden items?

Model Gaile Lok promotes Chinese dairy project in New Zealand (c) TVNZ 2010

My point in all of this is that we can not count on the destabilising cataysts we may face to be purely of man-made origin, or that they might be Militant in nature. What if our adversaries, or competitors, opt to employ the three other components of the DIME construct: Diplomatic, Informational and Economic, perhaps catching the wave of a natural disaster or two….?

And on the subject of considering endstates, Mr Wineera has written another commentary, speculating on the end state sought by our PRT in Afghanistan